TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

News

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Iraq Calls on US Government for Military Aid

12 June 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Iraq is back in the news headlines again, as civil war has broken out in that country amid escalating violence.

Iraq’s ruling government is calling on the U.S. for military aid, although such is not likely. Crude oil prices are sharply higher Thursday, mostly on the Iraq news. Gold is also seeing modest safe-haven buying support on the news. The bigger worry is that the violence in Iraq could spread to other Arab countries.

In other overnight news, industrial production in the European Union rose 0.8% in April from March and was up 1.4% year-on-year. The increase was a bit larger than forecast.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices, and retail sales.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (New violence in Iraq has the world market place taking notice.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early trading. Bulls are still in solid overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in Wednesday’s high of 1,943.50 and then at the record high of 1,947.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,931.50 and then at 1,920.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit another 13-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 3,805.00 and then at 3,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,797.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,780.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 16,880 and then at 16,900. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,840 and then at 16,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 2/32 and then at Wednesday’s high of 135 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 134 18/32 and then at last week’s low of 134 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early trading today. Bulls and bears are now on an overall level near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.03.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of 124.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.29.0 and then at this week’s low of 123.25.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 81.010 and then at last week’s high of 81.170. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 80.785 and then at 80.675. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and hit another contract high in early U.S. trading. Iraq violence is boosting crude. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $106.34 and then at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the $105.50 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering and bargain hunting. Traders are awaiting the weekly USDA export sales report this morning. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remains benign for the corn and soybean crops, and that’s still bearish for prices. Technically, soybean bulls still have the slight near-term advantage, but have faded. Wheat and corn bears have the firm near-term technical edge.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance