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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: 'Market Mover' Reports Due for Release

24 June 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday, including the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index.

Some of these reports could be markets-movers.

In overnight news, the German Ifo consumer sentiment survey came in weaker than expected. The Ifo reading was 109.7 in June versus 110.4 in May. A figure of 110.2 was expected. Worries about the Iraq and Ukraine crisis weighed on German consumer sentiment. The downbeat Ifo report adds more weight to the notions that the European Union’s economy remains in serious trouble.

The civil war in Iraq remains a market factor. While the matter could still be prompting some risk aversion in the market place and is still supportive for gold and U.S. Treasury prices, the U.S. stock indexes are hovering near record or multi-year highs, which hints risk aversion is not that keen at present. However, it’s likely the Iraqi crisis will not go away and could escalate at any time.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s record high of 1,959.75 and then at 1,970.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,940.00 and then at 1,929.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near a 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 3,805.00 and then at 3,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,775.00 and then at 3,762.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 16,860 and then at last week’s high of 16,895. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,800 and then at 16,750. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 29/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 8/32 and then at 135 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 124.23.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.07.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.385 and then at Monday’s high of 80.465. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 80.240 and then at 80.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $107.00 and then at the contract high of $107.45. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at the overnight low of $105.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading. Grain market bears are in overall technical control. The very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt recently is the major bearish fundamental factor in the market. “Rain makes grain.” Focus will remain on Corn Belt weather forecasts, but also on upcoming USDA export sales data, and on updated planted acres numbers issued in late June.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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