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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Iraq Civil War Important Market Factor

25 June 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - There were no major developments on the world market place overnight.

The civil war in Iraq remains an important market element. Some risk aversion in the market place is still supportive for gold and U.S. Treasury prices. However, the U.S. stock indexes are hovering not far below record or multi-year highs, which hints risk aversion is not that keen at present. The Russia-Ukraine civil unrest is still simmering in the background.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, durable goods orders, the third gross domestic product estimate for the first quarter, the flash services purchasing managers’ index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (Civil war in Iraq still has the world market place somewhat concerned.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s record high of 1,960.00 and then at 1,970.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,940.00 and then at 1,929.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below Tuesday’s 14-year high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 3,805.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 3,829.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 3,779.00 and then at 3,762.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,800 and then at 16,850. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 16,720 and then at 16,700. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 136 11/32 and then at 136 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 136 even and then at 135 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 124.23.5 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.17.5 and then at 124.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.505 and then at 80.600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.345 and then at last week’s low of 80.240. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high overnigth. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $107.00 and then at the contract high of $107.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at this week’s low of $105.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Grain market bears are still in overall technical control. There is presently very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt and no weather threats on the horizon. Focus will remain on Corn Belt weather forecasts, but also on upcoming USDA export sales data, and on updated planted acres numbers issued early next week. Importantly, don’t be lulled just yet into thinking the U.S. corn and soybean crops are already bin-busters. We are just now entering the time period when dry and hot weather starts to enter the Corn Belt.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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