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Favourable Prospects for 2014 Kazakhstan Cereal Production

07 July 2014

KAZAKHSTAN - Planting of the 2014 cereal spring crops, mainly wheat, accounting for over 95 percent of annual cereal production, was completed in June.

The weather conditions since the beginning of the season in May have been generally favourable, benefitting planting activities and development of early planted crops.

Assuming normal weather conditions continue during the remaining of the cropping season, FAO preliminarily forecasts the 2014 wheat output at 14.8 million tonnes, 6 per cent up from 2013.

Barley and other feed crops are also anticipated to increase and the 2014 total cereal output is expected at 18.5 million tonnes, an improvement of 5 per cent over the previous year’s average level.

This year’s projected good outcome is also based on a larger area planted following a significant increase in Government’s agricultural support, including subsidies to fuel, fertilizers and other inputs, as well as lower interest rates for leasing agricultural machinery.

Wheat exports in 2014/15 forecast close to the previous year’s level

Kazakhstan is a main exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in the subregion’s food security.

The bulk of cereals is traditionally exported to CIS countries (namely Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) and to Afghanistan.

Exports of wheat in 2014/15 marketing year (July /June) are tentatively forecast to remain around the 2013/14 level of 7.5 million tonnes.

However, increases of Government’s investments in transportation and infrastructure may result in additional exports’ opportunities this season, notably to China, Iran and Turkey.

Export prices of wheat increased in past months but lower than a year earlier

Wheat export prices continued to seasonally strengthen in June mainly as a result of dwindling export availabilities. Prices have increased 15 per cent over the past three months.

However, June prices were still 10 per cent lower compared to the same month last year. Increased export prices have also pushed up domestic prices of wheat flour.

Further Reading

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