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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Less Confidence in Market Place

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Less Confidence in Market Place

14 August 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, the European Union saw more downbeat economic reports, as the bloc’s gross domestic product showed a zero percent growth rate in the second quarter from the first, and was up 0.7% year-on-year.

Particularly, GDP in Germany and France—the two largest EU members—was disappointing. Meantime, the EU consumer price index fell 0.7% in July from June and was up 0.4% year-on-year. The CPI report added to ongoing worries regarding price deflation in the EU. The 10-year German bund fell to a record low of below 1% on the EU economic news Thursday. European stock markets were pressured on the EU data, while the Euro currency traded near steady on the news.

There are still geopolitical hotspots in the world, but the market place this week has put those matters on the back burner as there have been no serious flare-ups, and because summer is winding down. I suspect that early September could see renewed concerns regarding geopolitics.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and import and export price indexes.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The market place this week is less focused on the still-simmering geopolitical matters: the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Iraq and the Gaza strip.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading as bulls are making a good recovery after prices hit a 2.5-month low last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,950.00 and then at 1,965.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,942.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,930.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today as bulls are making a good recovery after prices hit a six-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 3,965.00 and then at 3,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,940.00 and then at 3,925.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are regaining upside near-term technical momentum. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,650 and then at 16,700. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,600 and then at Wednesday’s low of 16,545. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139 25/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139 7/32 and then at 139 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.11.0 and then at the contract high of 126.17.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.00.5 and then at 125.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. Prices are still hovering near a nine-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 81.775 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.510 and then at this week’s low of 81.415 Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $98.00 and then at this week’s high of $98.58. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $96.75 and then at last week’s low of $96.55. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Bears remain in full technical command of the grains. Record U.S. corn and soybean crops are in the offing. Now, focus of traders will now be on harvesting those crops and on worldwide demand. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales report.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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