ANALYSIS - Mumbai based Cotton Association on India (CAI) has said that with cotton crop for the season 2013-14 beginning October 1, 2013 pegged at 40.05 million bales of 170 kg each is set to make India world’s largest cotton producer.
The projected Balance Sheet drawn for the year 2013-14 estimated total cotton supply at 45.77 million bales while the domestic consumption is estimated at 29.5 million bales thus leaving an available surplus of 16.27 million bales, CAI said in a statement.
The arrivals up to July 31, 2014 are placed at 39.45 million bales, the statement adds.
CAI attributed the growth to the hard work and the concerted efforts of all those connected with cotton in India viz. the Government agencies, Scientists, NGOs and most importantly the cotton farmers.
The association said, International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has estimated China’s cotton production for the year 2014-15 at 6.22 million tonnes, while USDA’s cotton production estimate of China for the year 2014-15 is 6.42 million tonnes.
Compared with these figures of China’s cotton production, the production of cotton for India estimated by the CAI for the year 2014-15 is 6.74 million tonnes.
Although the ICAC and USDA have estimated India’s cotton production for the cotton season 2014-15 at 6.04 and 6.31 million tonnes respectively, these production estimates are likely to be revised upward, the statement adds.
The current season’s estimates of ICAC and USDA for China are 6.93 and 6.97 million metric tons respectively which are marginally higher than their production estimates for India for the cotton season 2013-14, CAI noted.
The CAI’s production estimate for the crop year 2014-15 is a bit conservative as productivity of cotton is likely to somewhat suffer due to the late and erratic monsoon this season.
However, in view of the improved rains subsequently, acreage under cotton in India during 2014-15 crop year is likely to be record-high and if weather continues to remain favourable, India’s crop size during 2014-15 crop season will be substantially higher than what is estimated currently by the CAI
As per the first estimate of cotton crop for the season 2014-15 released by CAI, its estimates the cotton crop for the season 2014-15 at 39.62 million bales.