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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Market Place at Ease

29 August 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The market place is at least temporarily a bit more at ease early Friday, despite rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine confrontation. As fighting continues in Eastern Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has denied his troops are involved in the matter, despite NATO satellite photos that suggest otherwise.

The Russian ruble currency fell to a record low versus the US dollar Friday, as the world continues to lose confidence in Russia as a world economic player. This situation is very likely to worsen before it improves, and it will like prompt more risk aversion in the market place at some point soon. European Union leaders will meet again on this matter during the weekend.

It will not be surprising, as Friday’s U.S. trading session progresses, to see traders and investors take some risk off the table, heading into a three-day U.S. holiday weekend, and especially with geopolitics near the front burner of the market place.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The market place is still focused on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, heading into a long U.S. holiday weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

US STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hit a new high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,000.00 and then at 2,015.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,979.50 and then at 1,970.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today and hit another 14-year high overnight. Bulls are in firm technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 4,084.00 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,065.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,055.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hovering not far below this week’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the record high of 17,130 and then at 17,150. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 17,077 and then at 17,050. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

US TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and seeing some profit taking after hitting a contract high on Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 11/32 and then at the contract high of 140 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139 31/32 and then at 139 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.29.5 and then at this week’s high of 125.30.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.22.5 and then at 125.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

US DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading and seeing some mild profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.710 and then at the contract high of 82.855. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 82.450 and then at 82.230. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Short covering is featured. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $95.15 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $94.48 and then at $94.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The grain markets could be “basing” at lower price levels on the daily charts, as price action the past few weeks has been mostly choppy and sideways. Such is indicative of a bottoming process in a market. However, grain market bears are in technical command of the grains at present. Bulls need to see more near-term bullish signals to suggest lows are in place. Stay tuned.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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