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Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower

Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower

09 September 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December Corn closed down 7 3/4-cents at 3.48 1/4. December corn closed lower on Monday as freeze concerns across the northern Plains and upper Midwest have declined.

Last week's decline pushed corn futures to a four-year low due to expectations for a record corn crop this fall.

The USDA's monthly report due on Thursday should confirm widespread private forecasts for a larger corn crop this fall. A Reuters' poll showed an average corn crop estimate of 14.288 billion and 170.74 bushels per acre for corn.

In August, USDA had forecast 14.032 billion bushels of corn at 167.4 bushels per acre for corn. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 3.24 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.81. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.43 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.24 1/2.

December wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 5.33 1/2. December wheat closed lower on Monday. Strong competition in the export market from Russia and the Ukraine along with Europe continue to weigh on wheat prices.

The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.79 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.79 1/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 5.91. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.24 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.

December Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 6.29. December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher due to short covering on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.44 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.44 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.72 1/2. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 6.16 3/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 6.10 3/4. December
Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 6.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.42 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.42 1/2. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 6.59 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 6.02 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 6.00.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

November soybeans closed down 13-cents at 10.08 1/2. November soybeans closed lower on Monday as expectations for a huge soybean crop negated concerns of a possible frost later this week across portions of the upper Midwest.

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If November extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 10.00 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.36 3/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 10.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 10.00.

December soybean meal closed down $6.70 at 342.40. December soybean meal closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off May's high, August's low crossing at 337.80 is the next downside target.

Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 362.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 362.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 366.60. First support is August's low crossing at 337.80. Second support is January's low crossing at 337.10. December soybean oil closed down 34 pts. at 32.14.

December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 29.57 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.71. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 31.75. Second support is weekly support crossing at 29.57.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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