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Indonesia Rice Production Forecast Slightly Below Last Year’s Record Level

Indonesia Rice Production Forecast Slightly Below Last Year’s Record Level

18 September 2014

INDONESIA - Harvesting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop, which accounts for about 95 per cent of annual production, was completed by June, while that of the 2014 secondary season crop is expected to start in mid-October and continue into December.

Latest official forecasts put this year’s aggregate rice production (including the 2014 main and secondary seasons) at 69.9 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record level.

The expected decrease is the result of a slight contraction in planted area, reflecting a shift from paddy land to other crops, as well as planting disruptions due to floods from mid-January to late February, particularly in parts of West Java.

Harvesting of the 2014 main (rainy) season maize crop was completed in April and that of the 2014 secondary (dry) season crop will start in mid-October and will be completed in December.

The 2014 aggregate maize output is officially forecast at 18.6 million tonnes, similar to last year’s above-average harvest and slightly below the 2012 record output.

The probability of an El Niño event in the last quarter of the year has been recently lowered to 60 per cent.

The phenomenon is often associated with below-average precipitation and the past moderate El Niño events resulted in production declines in the country.

Depending on the timing and intensity of an eventual El Niño, the 2015 main rainfed paddy crops, which are planted from late October, may be negatively affected by the event.

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TheCropSite News Desk



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