UKRAINE - Export data from UkrAgroConsult confirms that maize shipments from Ukraine totalled a record 19.87Mt in 2013/14, 58 per cent higher year-on-year, reports Dr Amandeep Purewal, Senior Analyst, AHDB/HGCA.
In 2014/15, however, exports are expected to be around 3-4Mt lower according to forecasts from the USDA and Ukraine’s Economic Development Ministry.
A combination of lower planted area and lower yields means that the Ukrainian maize output is expected to decline by almost 6Mt in 2014/15 (USDA).
Despite this, Ukraine is likely to remain the world’s third largest maize exporter.
The realisation of the global maize crop is also getting closer as the northern hemisphere harvests progress. As at 24 October, Ukraine’s maize harvest was 67 per cent complete.
The monthly EU MARS crop bulletin, published yesterday, maintained the forecast for average EU maize yield in 2014/15 at 7.59t/ha (compared with the five-year average of 6.79t/ha).
Although rainfall in some parts has hindered harvest progress, this has not had an adverse impact on yields.
Meanwhile, the US maize harvest was 46 per cent complete as at 26 October. While this is behind last year’s progress and the five year average, crop condition ratings are higher (74 per cent in good/excellent condition compared with 62 per cent a year earlier).
So while it might be taking a bit longer than usual, the realisation of the record maize crop the market’s been waiting for is getting closer.
TheCropSite News Desk