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Exports are Key to Avoid Major Wheat, Barley Surpluss

Exports are Key to Avoid Major Wheat, Barley Surpluss

28 November 2014
HGCA

UK - Substantial surpluses of wheat and barley have been forecast by Defra as part of their estimates for UK cereals supply and demand, published this week.

In contrast, end season stocks for maize and oats are expected to decline in 2014/15.

The surplus of wheat available for either export or free stock has been estimated at 3.5Mt for 2014, an increase of 270 per cent when compared with last year (0.9Mt).

This makes the export market key to the UK this season and explains the presence of the positive futures price carry into the new crop positions.

Although demand is anticipated to increase this year, the forecast higher domestic consumption is not enough to offset the 39 per cent increase in production from the 2014 harvest.

Despite a modest decline in barley output in 2014/15,the UK is facing a barley surplus of 2.2Mt.

Higher carry-in stocks, plus a reduction in animal feed demand compared with last year, have contributed to the predicted 19 per cent increase in the barley surplus.

The demand for barley, maize and oats in relation to animal feed are down on last year’s estimates, as a result of the increased price competitiveness and availability of feed wheat this year.

TheCropSite News Desk



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