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Model Shows Wheat Harvest  May Fall with Global Warming

Model Shows Wheat Harvest May Fall with Global Warming

30 December 2014
BBSRC

GLOBAL - New research in the UK using models predicts a six per cent reduction in global wheat harvest for each 1°C of global warming.

An international consortium of researchers has used big data sets to predict the effects climate change on global wheat yields.

Their multi-model predictions indicated global wheat production losses of six per cent for each degree centigrade of global warming with increased variability of yield across regions and seasons. The study is published in Nature Climate Change.

The researchers, including from Rothamsted Research, which is strategically supported by BBSRC, used for the first time systematic multi-model testing with field and artificial heating experiments to focus on wheat responses to high temperatures.

Understanding how different climate factors impact food production is essential for adaptation and mitigation to climate change.

Thirty wheat crop models were compared within the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) with two previously unpublished data sets from field experiments in which wheat was exposed to growing season mean temperatures ranging from 15 to 32°C.

Extrapolating the multi-model ensemble's predictions indicated global wheat production losses of six per cent for each degree centigrade of global warming with increased variability of yield across regions and seasons.

Dr Mikhail Semenov, whose team at Rothamsted Research contributed to this research, said: "Options exist to adapt and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on global wheat production."

Breeding for late maturing cultivars with longer grain filling to recapture the temperature-induced loss of biomass and grain yield could be beneficial as long as exposure to heat stress and terminal drought does not become counter-productive. Optimising this trade-off should be region specific, and crop modelling is a key exploration tool to underpin crop adaptation for a changing climate."

Professor Martin Parry, leading the 20:20® Wheat Institute Strategic Programme at Rothamsted Research commented: "This is an excellent example of collaborative research which will help ensure that we have the knowledge needed to develop the crops for the future environments."

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