US - The record US 2014 maize crop became slightly less of a record yesterday, with Informa economics lowering their estimates of US yield (down 0.1t/ha) and production (down 2Mt).
At the same time, estimated Brazilian maize production for this season was revised upwards by 3Mt and Ukrainian maize production by 1.5Mt.
The USDA is set to release its latest world supply and demand estimates on 12 January – amongst a raft of quarterly data. Informa’s estimates suggest that maize futures are pricing in expectations of lower US production but higher world production in advance of the USDA release.
If USDA figures are as expected, estimating lower US production in line with Informa’s estimates, this implies that there may well be little price movement after the release of the report as this may already be priced in.
If, however, US maize production is not revised downwards, this may not have been priced in, presenting a risk of downward price movement after the report.
TheCropSite News Desk