RUSSIA - Russian winter grain production could fall as much as 40 per cent this year according to the Agriculture Ministry via the Interfax news agency.
Production of grain from autumn sown crops is forecast at 28-30Mt against 48Mt in 2014. The estimate is based on the assumption that 3.6M ha of crops will fail which are currently in a “bad state”.
Spring weather will be important in determining just how much of the winter crop area will fail as well as being critical for the success of spring cropping.
Markets will try and keep a close eye on Russian weather impacts especially if the rouble remains weak (which supports export competitiveness).
This is likely to maintain the government’s close watch on domestic food price inflation. It would therefore be complacent to assume the removal of export controls when we reach harvest 2015.
TheCropSite News Desk