RUSSIA - Last week, the removal of the duty on Russian exports forced Russian wheat export prices to decline, against the trend for other origins.
While there is still uncertainty over what level of export duty that will be introduced from 1 July – the mechanism is still being developed – anecdotal information suggests it is likely to be minimal.
However, use of the mechanism could well be driven by Russian crop conditions and value of the Rouble.
While wheat production in the region in 2015/16 is forecast down from this season’s record, total supplies would still be above 2013/14 levels.
This suggests that the fierce competition from the region into key export markets in North Africa is likely to continue next season – potentially to the detriment of EU exports.
Indeed, private analyst’s firm Strategie Grains project that EU exports may be as much as 3.6Mt lower than this season’s forecast record.
TheCropSite News Desk