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Substantial Increase in Old Crop Wheat Carry-over

Substantial Increase in Old Crop Wheat Carry-over

26 May 2015
HGCA

UK - For most of this season we’ve known that at the end of June, the UK is likely to have a substantial carry-over of wheat compared with earlier years.

A big crop, combined with low farm gate prices, has led to the situation where there is almost 60 per cent more wheat forecast to be in commercial end season stocks than last year, according to the latest update of Defra’s cereal supply and demand figures.

While commercial end-season stocks at 3.1Mt are at the top end of Defra’s range, the low end of the range still accounts for a notable increase on last year (the range is represented as the shaded area in the bar chart below for the 2014/15 forecast).

Taking the estimated minimum level that processors need in reserves to tide them over until the new crop is available and ready for processing, means that ‘free stock’ could reach 1.6Mt this season, over three times what was left last year.

The fourth official update of the balance sheet also highlighted the better than expected demand for animal feed than had been anticipated in earlier forecasts.

Despite this year being fairly typical in terms of weather conditions and good grass growth, (total cereal animal feed demand is only up 1 per cent on last year), demand across the cattle, sheep and pigs sectors has driven an upward revision to the previous estimate by 251Kt, to 11.4Mt.

This marks the end of the current ‘forecasting’ period for the 2014/15 crop year. The final balance sheet will be produced in September, taking account of all available official statistics for the full season.

TheCropSite News Desk



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