Talk of Russian Grain Export Ban Ending Soon
15 April 2011
RUSSIA - Speculation is growing among US merchants that Russia might lift its grain export ban within weeks, reopening a fiercely-competitive producer for business after a year of restrictions following a drought-devastated harvest.
A series of US brokers reported talk that Russia, the world's fourth-biggest wheat exporter before curbs were implemented in August, was poised early in the summer to lift the ban, writes Agrimoney.com.
In Minneapolis, Benson Quinn Commodities, part of the Archer Daniels Midland empire, flagged "concerns that Russia will begin to allow exports in June as they confidence about this year's production builds.
"Wheat values would most likely see the most impact from this decision."
In Iowa, rival US Commodities noted that "rumours now persist that Russia could again enter the export market in the early summer".
"It's export talk. Exporters are talking about it," Don Roose, president of US Commodities.
Putin comments
In Moscow, grains expert Andrey Sizov from SovEcon consultancy said the rumours could stem from a "misinterpretation" of comments from Vladimir Putin last week, when the Russian president pledged to "do the utmost to remedy the situation on the grain market and... restore our image as a reliable partner".
"Mr Putin did not say when exports would resume," Mr Sizov, managing director of influential analysis group SovEcon, said.
However, Mr Sizov highlighted the "change of tone" in the statement from comments from other officials, which have indicated a lifting of the ban either in the autumn or early next year.
"And all the key statements on this have been made by Mr Putin."
Trader action
Furthermore, the US rumour follows pressure among grain merchants in Russia for the lifting of a ban.
Trading giants such as Bunge and Glencore, and including many organisations which urged last year's curbs, last month formed an industry association to promote the reopening of Russian grain exports.
However, it was difficult to forecast yet how much grain might be available for export, should the curbs be lifted, said Sizov, whose group has forecast Russian production at 75m-85m tonnes, ahead of domestic consumption at about 70m tonnes.
With a reduction in winter sowings, and a very late spring, the harvest was "likely to come in at the low point of the range".
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