Russian Grain Forecast to Rebound
18 July 2011
RUSSIA - Russian grain production this year is expected to rebound from last year's drought-affected crops, with grain production forecast at approximately 85.5Mt (including legumes) for the 2011/12 harvest under the assumption of normal summer weather.
Although winter grain area actually fell, survival rates improved from last year, while estimates of area sown to spring grains has increased from 28.1Mha in 2010 (the lowest in the last decade) to between 28.1 and 30.3Mha.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, Russian farmers planted 29.6Mha to spring grains and legumes (98 per cent of the total planned spring grain area). Spring wheat was planted on 14.0Mha (same as last year), spring barley on 7.4Mha (10 per cent increase on 2010/11), and maize on 1.6Mha (16 per cent increase on 2010/11).
Weather during the summer months so far has been largely favourable for the development of winter grains and spring grains. Assuming normal weather, total grain production is forecast at 85.5Mt, of which 52.5Mt is wheat, 16.5Mt barley and 5.0Mt maize. Oats, rye and other grains and legumes make up the remaining 11.8Mt.
Grain exports resumed on the 1st July after the Russian government decided not to extend the grain export ban that had been in force from 15 August 2010 through to 30th June 2011. Industry forecasts vary from 11Mt to 19Mt of grain exported in 2011/12 season, of which approximately 85 per cent is likely to be wheat and 10 per cent barley.
Volumes could likely depend more on domestic prices and government policy rather than the final size of production. Uncertainty regarding future export policies continues to influence decision making with export volumes in July subsequently lower than experienced in previous years with industry forecasts between 1.5 and 1.6Mt (compared to 1.9Mt in July 2010).
Analysts estimate carry-over stocks by July 2011 from between 10 and 20Mt. Opening stocks this year were estimated at approximately 13Mt, but it was the government ban on exports that resulted in these stocks being untypically large for a year in which crops suffered from drought.
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