Russian Harvest Expected at 90Mt04 August 2011
RUSSIA - The size of the Russian grain crop is now expected to be in the region of 90Mt, still below the highs of c100Mt seen in 2008 and 2009, but up on early estimates that put the crop at c80Mt.
In addition, old crop stocks are also seen to be available, although estimates of these vary. The Russian Grain Union (RGU), sees total carry-over stocks from last season at 19Mt.
The RGU puts this year's grain harvest at 89-92Mt with around 58Mt being wheat. The main producing regions are expected to see production increases on last year with the exception of Siberia, which is experiencing a drought. In addition to this the RGU see domestic grain demand at 70Mt.
By 27th July, 27Mt of grain were harvested in Russia according to the Agriculture Ministry, which equates to 18 per cent of the planted area. This is slower than a year ago (26 per cent), which was a relatively early harvest because of the drought.
24 per cent of the wheat area had been harvested by 27 July, producing 21.2Mt. 9.4 per cent of the barley area had been harvested, producing 2.4Mt
In line with increasing crop estimates, export estimates are also increasing with 20Mt of grain exports expected currently in 2011/12. Of this the government say that 7Mt has already been ordered. In July, up to 2Mt of grain is expected to have been exported with August volumes expected at around 2.5Mt.
The RGU see grain exports reaching 3Mt per month in August and September. To achieve this though the RGU says that Russia needs to maintain a $20-30/t discount to the market, which was demonstrated at last week's Egyptian import tender.
Russia remains determined to develop grain exports both short and long term. Long term development is dependent on investment in infrastructure. Short term, President Medvedev is confident of a good harvest in 2011 and sees no need for further measures to regulate the market such as export tariffs.
|TheCropSite News Desk|