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Will Tight Global Grain Supplies Continue to Support Prices?

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TheCropSite
Tuesday 22nd January 2013.
Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor


5M

Will Tight Global Grain Supplies Continue to Support Prices?

Greetings from a bitter cold Midwest. I've been in Chicago this week and have been reminded why it's called the Windy City.

Last week, the International Grains Council released their latest report, underlining the tightness of the global grains and oilseeds supply. Here are the report highlights:

For wheat, the focus is now on the condition of the northern hemisphere 2013/14 winter crops, particularly in the areas of the US hit hard by drought. Analysis shows little correlation between reported end-November crop conditions and final yields, but as the rating for the current crop is at an historical low, it is uncharted territory. Elsewhere, prospects are generally more promising and global output is tentatively projected up 4 per cent year-on-year for 2013/14, with a 2 per cent increase in area.

Corn prices have recovered recently following the USDA's increased estimate of feed use over the Sep-Nov 2012 period. The market is particularly tight with global end-season stocks expected to be down by 20m t year-on-year at a nine-year low.

Barley availabilities are also limited, with output forecast down 3 per cent year-on-year and major exporters' carryovers placed at the lowest level in 17 years.

Rice markets remain relatively stable with support from tight export availabilities in Thailand and Vietnam mostly offset by pressure from limited export interest. Rice output is forecast unchanged year-on-year and, while global stocks are expected to show a small decline, major exporters' inventories are seen rising to a record 37.1m t.

World soybeans markets have softened over the month as early pressure from improved weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil was only partly offset by recent speculative fund buying, strong export demand and renewed concerns about dryness in parts of South America. Record crops in the region underpin the forecast for a recovery in global inventories.

For more data from the report, click here.

Have a great week!


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