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Will Global Weather Anomalies Support the Grain Market in 2013? - 5 February 2013

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TheCropSite
Tuesday 5th February 2013.
Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor


5M

Will Global Weather Anomalies Support the Grain Market in 2013?

Last week was all about the US weather forecast, so we are going global this week and looking at the forecast for rest of the world.

I recently attended the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference, and Drew Lerner, meteorologist and president of World Weather, Inc., told the US audience not to expect for the overseas grain markets to provide any support to the US market. The forecast just looks too good.

Lerner said the forecast for Brazil and Argentina looks very good, especially for Brazil. Brazil is going to see more rain, which might cause a little bit of a delay in their harvest and a little quality loss, but he doesn't expect it to hurt yields.

Argentina has gone through five months of wet but has shifted towards a drier pattern. But Lerner said the key is what's going on today. It's pollination season for corn, and soybeans will be reproducing soon, making the rain over the next few weeks extremely important. Lerner's forecast is for very dry, warm weather but scattered showers and thunderstorms should start occurring. The rainfall will be below average, but the rainfall intervals will favor pollination.

India is experiencing a change in weather right now. They have been dry October through December. However, India irrigates a tremendous amount of their crop, so losses have not been great. Reproduction begins in the next few weeks, and losses can be made up by having timely rainfall. At least two more storm systems will bring moisture into the topsoil and help support reproduction. Lerner said if the forecast verifies, India is going to do very well.

China's weather in the primary wheat and rapeseed producing areas in east central China, has been just perfect. In the spring northeast China, where the corn and soybeans are produced, may see delayed seasonal rains in late May and June, but once the rains kick in, they'll do fine with precipitation thereafter - maybe just a little bit of a delay in planting.

Russia is still suffering from dryness from three years of drought in a very important wheat and barley production region. The forecast is for better weather this spring, but then to turn drier again in late May into June. They'll have a period of dry-down, and stress will occur, impacting their spring crops more than their winter crops.

Eastern Australia's dryness has already impacted sorghum and cotton. Recently, the remnants of tropical storm Oswald have moved down through eastern Queensland, producing widespread rain in sugar cane country and bringing substantial improvements. Eastern portions of the sorghum and cotton crops are in-line to receive rain. The outlook puts them back into a drier bias for a while. However, moving into wheat planting season, southern portions will see timely precipitation and do relatively well.

As for Europe , the Iberian Peninsula, Spain and Portugal were very dry last year. However, they had enough leftover irrigation to carry on normal crop development. A good year of rainfall this year was imperative-so far, they've done OK. They should come into spring with at least the same conditions they had a year ago.

The rest of Europe has been just plain wet. There is snow on the ground everywhere across the continent, except in the coastal regions on the Atlantic side and in the Mediterranean. When the snow melts, it will cause runoff that is likely to lead to flooding.

If you'd like to read more about the South American forecast, click here.

Have a great week!


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