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Will Better Weather, More Acres Push Corn Prices Sharply Lower? - 12 February 2013

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TheCropSite
Tuesday 12th February 2013.
Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor


5M

Will Better Weather, More Acres Push Corn Prices Sharply Lower?

Greetings - I'm just back from the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) meeting held in sunny Tampa, Florida. Having spent the winter in Chicago, I actually forgot what it felt like to be warm and toasty.

First, let me share some grain insights from US-based CattleFax, whose analysts spoke at NCBA.

Record-high prices have incentivized increased production globally. US corn stocks-to-use levels remain historically low as well as around the world.

CattleFax expects world soybean stocks-to-use levels to hold near the 10-year average, but US stocks-to-use levels will remain historically low. They expect world wheat stocks-to-use levels to hold near the 10-year average in the US and globally. They expect corn stocks-to-use levels to range from 5 to 7 percent through April 2013, but said levels have the potential to reach 10 to 12 percent for the 2013-2014 market year.

CattleFax said demand rationing for US corn exports will continue amid more competitively priced supplies outside the US. And continued rationing of corn for ethanol is expected.

Corn prices are expected to remain historically high through the first half of 2013, but better weather conditions and an increase in production should pressure corn prices sharply lower by fall 2013.

Speaking at the CattleFax session, meteorologist Art Douglas, Creighton University, forecast a warm, dry spring across the US Southwest. The Midwest spring is expected to be warm with normal to slightly above normal precipitation, which will support early field work. However, by late spring, a cooler and wetter pattern could slow down late planting and early germination of the crop. In the Plains, winter wheat precipitation is expected to be spotty through June and a very dry May could keep yields below normal.

Another hot topic… all of American agriculture has been a buzz about Dodge Ram's Super Bowl TV commercial, which was a tribute to American farmers. Everyone at NCBA was talking about it; writers have been blogging about it. And as of Monday evening as I'm writing, 11 million viewers had watched the 2 minute video on YouTube.

Late American radio legend Paul Harvey says, "On the eighth day, God said he needed a care-taker, so God created a farmer." Harvey continues on talking about a farmer's life, while imagery depicts the history and lifestyle of farming up through the current age of larger, high-tech family farms.

Regardless of what country you live in, I hope you'll watch it. It shows what farming is all about - that you don't do it for the money. You do it because of a love for the land, your animals, and mostly, for your children and grandchildren. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what it's all about.

Click here to view the "Farmer" commercial.

Have a great week!


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Global Crop Industry News

   Kazakhstan

Sharply Lower Flax, Rapeseed Production to Cut Kazakhstan Exports

   European Union

FEFAC Congress to Address Staying Profitable in Volatile Times
NFU Calls for Fairness Ahead of Crunch Meeting
Moving Towards Global Feed LCA Guidelines
Reactions to EU Budget Deal

   South Africa

Minister Announces New Minimum Wage for Farmworkers

   United States

CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Tuesday
Low Crop Revenue Most Likely Due to Lower Prices
Congress Urged to Begin Extensive Reform of RFS
NFU Continues to Push Congress for New Farm Bill
Purdue gets $1 Million to Improve Sorghum Research Tools
CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Wednesday
CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Thursday
Guidelines for Applying Lime to No-Till Farm Fields
Benefits of Bt Corn Go Beyond Rootworm Resistance
American Agriculture Gets Super Bowl Boost
Understanding Production Costs to Manage Risk, Maximize Profit
CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Friday
CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Monday
Farmland Sales Rush Could Spell Short Supply in 2013
New E15 Fuel Configuration Gets Approval in US
Evaluating Corn and Soybean Consumption Projections
CME: Negative Reaction to WASDE Report

   Argentina

Vietnam to Import Staple Foods from Argentina

   China

Companies Urged to Help Boost Chinese Agriculture

   Russian Federation

Miratorg Expanded All Business Operations in 2012

   United Kingdom

Flood Defences Get Green Light
Major Industry Conference on Future Design of Farm Buildings
Less Favoured Areas in the Spotlight After 40 Years

   General

FAO Food Price Index Remains Unchanged in January
FAO Examines Children's Work in Livestock Sector
Meteorologist: 2013 Forecast for India, China, Australia, Europe

   Brazil

Brazil Ethanol Sector Awaits Good News
Brazil Lifts Wheat Import Tax

   Denmark

Danish 'Super Plants' for Higher Yields and Greener Environment

   Australia

What Next for Australia's Weather?
A$20 Million in Commonwealth Flood Help for Bundaberg
Eyre Peninsula Grain Growers Asked for Views on Fund
Strong Australian Crop Forecast Despite Disasters

   Canada

Canadian Government Invest in Agri-Food, Biofuel Industries

   Philippines

Insurance Coverage Available to Farmers, Fishers in Northern Samar

   Jamaica

Jamaica Sorghum Production Will 'Reduce Import Bill'

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