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July 4th Week is Historically Pivotal for Grain Markets - 2 July 2013

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TheCropSite
Tuesday 2nd July 2013.
Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor


5M

July 4th Week is Historically Pivotal for Grain Markets

Hello - it has been a busy week and it’s only Tuesday!

After Friday’s surprisingly bearish USDA report, all I can say is that I really don’t believe it. USDA estimated US corn plantings at 97.4 million acres, up from its previous estimate of 97.28 million acres in March, and well above the average trade estimate of 95.34 million acres. That said, the corn market remains under pressure and will continue to trade these fundamentals over the next few weeks.

According to Jim Wyckoff, grain analyst for TheCropSite, this is historically a pivotal week for the grain market.

“How the grain markets close this Friday, after the 4th of July holiday, is going to be very important – a close near the weekly high is going to be bullish to suggest that we have put in market lows and can trend sideways to higher. However, bearish weekly low closes on Friday would suggest prices continuing to trend lower into the end of the summer,” Wyckoff said.

On Monday, December corn prices put in a new 2.5 year contract low and Tuesday will be a key test as it approaches the $5 level. It’s hard to believe that we might have seen the market highs for this season already?

USDA announced a soybean resurvey after last week’s report showed record plantings despite the slow pace of this spring’s planting. The survey timing - early June – likely reflects planned plantings, not actual plantings due to the weather.

To learn the impact of Friday’s USDA reports, click here.

Have a great week!


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This Week's Articles and Analysis

Tillage, Reduced-input Rotations Affect Runoff from Agricultural Fields
No-till management practices can reduce soil erosion, but evidence suggests they can also lead to increased runoff of dissolved phosphorus from soil surfaces.

Report Identifies 'Regret-Free' Approaches for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change
Whether it’s swapping coffee for cocoa in Central America or bracing for drought in Sri Lanka with a return to ancient water storage systems, findings from a new report from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) chart a path for farmers to adapt to climate shifts despite uncertainties about what growing conditions will look like decades from now.

Effects of Chemical Fertiliser and Animal Manure on Soil Health Compared
The complex community of microbes living in soil is important to most major soil processes, including the natural cycling of nutrients.

Land Use Change and Land Management Influence Floods in Small Catchments
Although weather and climate are the main drivers of flooding, changes in land cover can also influence the occurrence and frequency of floods by changing the responsiveness of river flows to rainfall.

Market Reports

USDA Crop Progress - July 1, 2013
China Wholesale Prices - 1 July 2013
USDA GAIN: Thailand Weekly Rice Price - 25 June 2013
China Wholesale Prices - 28 June 2013
USDA Agricultural Prices - June 2013
China Wholesale Prices - 27 June 2013
China Wholesale Prices - 26 June 2013

Global Crop Industry News

   United States

Jim Wyckoff's Monday Closing Grains: Corn Hits Fresh 2.5-Year Low
Grains: Where are the Stops? Monday, July 1
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Friday
Splitting Farm, Nutrition Programs is 'Recipe to Kill the Bill'
Corn, Soybean Market Prospects Following USDA Reports
Break Corn Rootworm Cycle with Crop Rotation, Trait Stacks
Grain Hedge: USDA Acreage Report Sends New Crop Futures Lower
GeoGrain: Grain Basis Collapses – For Now
Special Report: Bearish USDA Corn Acreage Estimate Weakens Grain Futures
Grains: Where are the Stops? Friday, June 28
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Thursday
Allendale: Quarterly Grain Stocks, Planted Acreage June 2013 Estimates
Grains: Where are the Stops? - June 27, 2013
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Wednesday
Jim Wyckoff's Wednesday Closing Grains: Corn Closes Steady in Pre-Report Trade
Grains: Where are the Stops? Wednesday, June 26
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Overnight Markets Mixed
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Tuesday
Midwest is Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot
Have Small US Soybean Supplies Finally Been Rationed?

   Global

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mixed Overnight
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Overnight Markets Narrowly Mixed
New CAST Publication Examines Impact of Precautionary Principle
Jim Wyckoff's Early Report: A Calmer Start
How to Identify, Correct Soil Compaction
US Soy Demonstrates Sustainability With Assurance Protocol

   Ukraine

Grain, Oilseed Crops Look Promising Near Poltava

   European Union

Croatia Joins EU: Milestone in Construction of a United Europe
Political Agreement Reached on New Direction for CAP
Luxembourg Council Meeting Focused on CAP Reform

   United Kingdom

Action on Bees Must be Based on Latest Evidence - NFU
John Deere Showcase FarmSight Precision Solutions
CAP Plans will 'Damage Farming, Reduce Food Production'
Trehalose - A Sugar for All Seasons
The Role of AD in Sustainable Farming
Saddle Gall Midge Larvae on the Move
'No Justification' for Scottish Demands to Receive More CAP Money
UK Votes on Common Agricultural Policy Reform
HGCA Survey Throws New Light on Free Fatty Acids in Rapeseed

   Madagascar

Locust Plague Threatens to Trigger Severe Food Crisis in Madagascar

   Canada

Stacking Agronomic Practices to Maximize Wheat Yield

   Philippines

Philippine FDA Stands by Genetically Modified Food as Safe

   China

The Challenge of Feeding China
China's Produce Prices See Slight Decrease

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