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Grain Demand - It's All About China - 23 October 2012

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The Crop Site

Tuesday 23rd October 2012.

Sarah Mikesell - TheCropSite Senior Editor

Sarah Mikesell
Senior Editor

Editorial: Grain Demand - It's All About China

Greetings from St Louis, Missouri, USA! I'm attending the Doane's 2012 Agricultural Outlook Conference. There was a ton of great information shared today, so watch headline news over the next several weeks for more coverage from the conference.

"It's all about China" - that was the key message from Rich Pottorff, Doane chief economist. Without a doubt, demand from China is driving and supporting the global grain market.

Pottorff offered a global outlook, noting that from 2000-2006 there was a deficit of 191 million tonnes in world grain production versus use. From 2007 to 2009, that switched to a surplus of 171 million tonnes. However, over the last three years, we've switched again to a deficit of 71 million tonnes mostly due to weather issues around the world.

Yield is rising at 1.3 per cent per year, while world population is rising at 1.12 per cent per year, he said.

Many say we are out of cropland, he noted, but the world's major crop area has seen a sharp increase in the last 12 years.

  • Corn - UP 93.9 million hectares
  • Soybeans - UP 81.8 million hectares
  • Rice - UP 15.6 million hectares
  • Cotton - UP 5.2 million hectares
  • Wheat - UP 4.2 million hectares
  • Rapeseed - UP 23.7 million hectares
  • Sorghum - DOWN 6.2 million hectares
  • Total (13 major crops) - UP 190.5 million hectares

Where in the World Is Crop Area Increasing?

From 2000 to 2012, the following countries increased their crop acreage.

  • Brazil - 41.5 million acres
  • Argentina - 23 million acres
  • Ukraine - 19 million acres
  • China - 16.6 million acres
  • India - 10.6 million acres
  • Kazakstan - 10.4 million acres
  • Iran - 5.7 million acres
  • Tanzania - 5.4 million acres
  • Paraguay - 5.2 million acres

South America and Africa are expected to convert even more acreage into crop land. And the US is expected to gain more land out of CRP (Conservation Reserve Program) reductions.

Demand from China?

Demand for corn from China is rising at nearly 5 per cent per year while yields are rising at about 1.5 per cent per year. Corn area in China increased 4.8 million hectares over the last 5 years.

Pottorff questions whether China can add another almost 4 million hectares in the next five years. He said if the area holds steady, China will have a 30 million metric tonne deficit by 2017-2018.

In 2000, China's land use was diversified among its three corn core crops - rice, wheat and corn. While those three crops remain the major players, China has now shifted corn to the leader position in an effort to meet their growing demand for livestock feed.

To read more from coverage from day one of the Doane conference, click here.

Have a great week!


Crop World Global 2012 - 6 & 7 November 2012


What Do RIN Values Tell Us about Biofuel Mandates?
The impact of the US drought on the price of corn and other feed grains and oilseeds has made the arcane subject of Renewable Identification Number (RINs) and the role of US biofuel policy of great interest this year. For example, there have been a number of recent calls to the EPA for waivers of the RFS mandates to relieve pressure on food prices for consumers and feed prices for livestock producers.

Palm Oil a Massive Source of Carbon Dioxide
Expanding production of palm oil, a common ingredient in processed foods, soaps and personal care products, is driving rainforest destruction and massive carbon dioxide emissions, according to a new study by Yale and Stanford researchers.

Impacts of Sustainable Agriculture Unknown
Environmental targets for sustainable agriculture can usually be met in a variety of ways, but their exact impacts are rarely known. A new study has compared the social, economic and environmental impacts of different policy approaches to hitting conservation targets in Australia, to help regional governments understand the costs, benefits and trade-offs of different policy options.

What is Soil Compaction, Where Does It Occur?
Soil compaction occurs when particles are compacted and the soil density increases. In a normal soil, the soil particles and pore spaces are very close to 50/50, but through agricultural practices, cultivation and wheeled traffic, those soil particles can become compressed closer together. This means that in the same volume there will be more soil and less pore spaces.

Unusual Genetic Structure Confers Major Disease Resistance Trait in Soybean
Scientists have identified three neighboring genes that make soybeans resistant to the most damaging disease of soybean. The genes exist side-by-side on a stretch of chromosome, but only give resistance when that stretch is duplicated several times in the plant.



   United Kingdom

First Estimate of Scotland Cereal, Oilseed Rape Harvest 2012
500kW Biogas Plant Unveiled at Melrose Pigs
Consultation Marks Welcome Step Closer to Abolition of AWB
Scientists Discover Wasps Which 'Could Eradicate Pests'
NFU Reacts to EU Renewable Proposals

   European Union

Future, Food, Farmers Campaign Launched on World Food Day 2012
EU Has Duty to Increase Production Says NFU
Biofuels Emission: Proposals Can’t Ignore Science
EU and Malawi Work Together to Improve Agricultural Production
EU Biofuels Policy set to Decimate Biofuels Industry
EU Biofuels U-turn ‘Ill-Conceived'
EFSA Provides Séralini et al with Data on GM Maize NK603
EC Reviews Measures on Imports from Japan

   Romania

Romanian Spring Crops Withered by Heat and Drought

   United States

CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Tuesday
Growers Encouraged to Watch for Mobile Soybean Pests
CME Group to Acquire Kansas City Board of Trade
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Wednesday
Expert: Southeast US has Huge Bioenergy Potential
CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Thursday
Monsanto Announces Commitment To Invest An Acre Program
Cash Rent Negotiations Underway
Kansas Ag Secretary to Speak on Drought, Impact on Food Production
What Repercussions Will Follow Proposition 37?
Checkoff-Funded Research Could Boost Soy’s Resistance to SCN
Weekly Roberts Market Report
GeoGrain: After Harvest Lows, Soybean Basis Rebound Remains Lackluster
Grain Hedge: Quiet Trade for Macros, Commodities
CME: Corn Futures Closed Mostly Unchanged Friday
USDA Grain Review: Mostly Lower Last Week
CME: Corn Futures Closed Mostly Unchanged Monday

   Viet Nam

Feed Prices Dramatically Higher in Vietnam

   Korea, South

S.Korean Prices of Imported Farm Goods Decline in September

   Brazil

$20 Billion Brazil Cotton Project

   General

Wheat - No Longer Passenger of Volatile Maize Market
Doane Conference: China, US Farm Bill, Production Agriculture

   Sri Lanka

Rs. 50 Billion Spent for Fertiliser Subsidy

   Serbia

More Incentives Needed for Serbia Biofuels

   Argentina

Argentina Expects Record Year for Soybeans

   South Africa

South Africa Sugar Production Expects 10 Per Cent Increase

   Philippines

Government Rice Programme Moves to Protect Christmas Crop

   Mexico

Mexican Sorghum Buyers Look at Texan Sorghum Quality

   China

China's Autumn Grain Output to Hit Record High

   Germany

Germany, Russia Cooperate in the Seed Sector

   Ukraine

Ukraine Could Ban Wheat Exports

   France

Barley Enters Genomics Age

   Australia

GrainCorp Receives Conditional Proposal from ADM
Policies Needed to Support Agriculture, not Strangle it

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