USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed
27 January 2012
Millers are alarmed over the sluggish foreign demand as they are holding large stocks of parboiled and white rice. Presently, the difference between Thai rice prices and Indian and Vietnamese rice prices has gradually narrowed to around $80/MT.
Domestic and export prices further declined 2-4 percent from the
previous week due to lack of enquiries. Millers are alarmed over the
sluggish foreign demand as they are holding large stocks of parboiled
and white rice, as a result from their speculative activities
believing that the aggressive Paddy Mortgage Program would result in
escalating world prices. In fact, domestic prices are higher than
global prices and there is no demand for Thai rice. Presently, the
difference between Thai rice prices and Indian and Vietnamese rice
prices has gradually narrowed to around $80/MT, compared to a
$100-170/MT difference in the past two months. As such, foreign buyers
continue to purchase Indian and Vietnamese rice. This has prompted
exporters to voice their concerns and have asked the Government to
review its aggressive intervention program, if let unchanged it will
likely result in a sharp reduction in rice exports to 7.0 million tons
in 2012, as compared to 10.5 million tons in 2011. Moreover, in the
worst case scenario, exports will likely decline to 6.5 million tons
if India does not limit its non-basmati rice exports at 2.0 million
Presently, the Government is holding old-crop intervention stocks of around 2.0 million tons. Meanwhile, the current Paddy Pledging Program has accepted a total of 5.3 million tons of paddy (3.5 million tons milled equivalent) from October 7, 2011 - January 15, 2012 (Table 2). This accounts for 23.5 percent of the expected total MY2011/12 main-crop production of 21-22 million tons of paddy (14.5 million tons milled equivalent). The Government expects the program will finally absorb only 7.0 million tons of paddy (4.6 million tons milled equivalent), by the end of the program in February 29, 2012, far below its initial target of 10.0 million tons of paddy.
Rice Export Update
Unofficial rice exports (excluding fragrant rice) for January 9-15,
2012 totaled 104,079 tons, up 42,769 ton from the previous week.
Exports of white rice and parboiled rice during January 1 - 15,
2012 totaled 116,489 tons, down 56.3 percent from 380,655 tons in the
According to the Department of Foreign trade, Ministry of Commerce, total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during January 1 - December 29, 2011 amounted to 10,518,891 tons, up 17.1 percent from 8,983,788 tons in the previous year.
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