Canadian Crop Statistics
04 May 2012
Total exports are forecast to increase as slightly higher exports of wheat and oilseeds more-than offset lower exports of coarse grains. Total carry-out stocks are expected to decrease significantly to about 15% below the 5 year average. In general, prices for grains and oilseeds are expected to remain historically high, similar to 2010/11.
For 2012/13, total production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is forecast to increase by 6% to 70.3 million metric tonnes. Exports and total domestic use are forecast to increase slightly. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase but remain below average. Prices are expected to decline, but remain historically high, under pressure from the strong Canadian dollar which is forecast to be near par with the US dollar. The main factors to watch are commodity prices, input costs, precipitation during the spring and the Canada-US exchange rate.
Pulses and Special Crops higher in 2011/12
For 2011/12, AAFC reports prices in Canada for pulses and special crops have averaged higher than 2010/11, with record prices for dry beans, chickpeas and sunflower seed. Total exports from Canada are forecast to decrease by 20%, largely due to the significant decrease in supply.
Total domestic use is expected to be higher, particularly for dry peas and lentils. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply for most crops with the exception of lentils, which are expected to rise. For 2012/13, total area seeded to pulses and special crops in Canada is forecast to increase by 9% from 2011/12 to 2.6 million hectares.
Total production is forecast to rise by 10% to 4.6 million metric tonnes. However, supply is expected to decline marginally due to lower carry-in stocks for most crops, particularly dry peas. Exports are expected to rise by 3% to 3.9 million metric tonnes, while domestic use is expected to decrease. Prices, averaged over all types, grades and markets are forecast to decrease for all crops, but still remain historically high.
USDA releases updated supply and demand estimates
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released updated world agriculture supply and demand estimates on March 9, 2012. Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged with lower China and Bangladesh beginning stocks offsetting higher production for Australia. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.9 million metric tonnes for China with an increase in food, seed and industrial use for 2010/11.
Global wheat trade is raised for 2011/12 with higher imports for a number of countries. The biggest increase is for Iran, up 0.7 million metric tonnes. Imports are raised 0.3 million metric tonnes each for Algeria, South Korea and Uzbekistan. The largest export increase is for the United States with smaller increases in Australia, Brazil and Kazakhstan.
Global exports are projected to be 129.6 million metric tonnes, just 0.5 million metric tonnes short of the 2008/09 record. Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 3.2 million metric tonnes mostly on higher food, seed and industrial use in China and higher wheat feeding in Australia, Iran and South Korea.May 2012
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