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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


11 October 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 11 October 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 11 October 2012

A cold front has brought wintry conditions to much of south-eastern Australia with severe frosts reported in some areas.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

The likelihood of an El Niño event has reduced. Most El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are neutral.

Reduced grain yields are expected this harvest due to frost and dry conditions during much of the growing season.

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 85 gigalitres this week and are at 97 per cent of total capacity.

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$369 a tonne in the week ending 9 October 2012, compared with US$376 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$320 a tonne in the week ending 10 October 2012, similar to the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$631 a tonne in the week ending 9 October 2012, similar to the previous week.

For the week ending 7 October 2012, around 58 per cent of the US soybean crop has been harvested, with around 37 per cent of the crop rated as good/excellent, compared with 56 per cent at the same time last year according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

Commodities

The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$369 a tonne in the week ending 9 October 2012, compared with US$376 a tonne in the previous week.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$320 a tonne in the week ending 10 Oct 2012, similar to the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$631 a tonne in the week ending 9 October 2012, similar to last week’s price of US$625 a tonne, but 6 per cent higher than the same time last year when the price was US$594 a tonne.

For the week ending 7 October 2012, around 58 per cent of the US soybean crop has been harvested, with around 37 per cent of the crop rated as good/excellent, compared with 56 per cent at the same time last year according to the United States Department of Agriculture. The US corn harvest is around 69 per cent complete, the US sorghum harvest is around 39 per cent complete and the US cotton harvest is around 21 per cent complete.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $501 a tonne in the week ending 8 October 2012, compared with $520 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US81.1 cents a pound in the week ending 10 October 2012, similar to the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US21.5 cents a pound in the week ending 10 October 2012, 3 per cent higher than in the previous week.

Climate

The likelihood of an El Niño event has reduced. The tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, while still warmer than average, have continued to cool over the past fortnight and remain within the neutral range. Neutral conditions persist in the atmosphere.

A cold front has brought wintry conditions to much of south-eastern Australia. Severe frosts have struck parts of South Australia with late season snow reported around Mount Lofty, Sevenhill, Hallett and Mount Remarkable. Some South Australian growers are cutting down frost-affected crops for hay.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are predicted for Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales today, with the possibility of hail. This rain may be of marginal benefit to late-maturing crops.

Central and northern Australia have experienced early hot weather with some locations recording the warmest October temperatures in 10 to 15 years.

The wheat harvest is beginning in Queensland. Yields may vary as many early crops were affected by frost and dry conditions.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 10 October 2012, moderate rain fell over Tasmania, Victoria and southern New South Wales. Light rain fell over the Far North and parts of South Australia and Western Australia. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 75 millimetres at Topaz, near Innisfail in Queensland. For further information, click here.

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