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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


09 February 2012

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - February 2012USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - February 2012

U.S. producers are likely to benefit from recent cuts in South American 2012 soybean crops soon to be harvested and marketed in competition against the U.S. 2011 crop.
USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

Declining South American Soybean Supplies Will Shift Buyer Focus to the U.S.

Dry weather has reduced area and yield that will adversely impact export availability in the coming months. This production decline along with record October-December exports and crush has reduced forecast supply 6 million tons from the previous year and 10 million tons from the December forecast. With global import demand expected to be 3 million tons higher than last year for the 2012 January-September period, there should be ample opportunity for the U.S. to carve out additional sales.

Monthly South American Soybean Supply Forecasts

In contrast, the U.S. is expected to have ample supplies ready for export in September 2012. With South American supplies on September 1st expected to be down nearly 9 million tons from last year, it is extremely unlikely that we will see a repeat of the 50 percent drop in U.S. export volume (15 million tons) in the September – December period. However, much will depend on the size of next year’s crop and strength of China’s demand.

OVERVIEW

Global soybean trade is lowered from last month as forecast exportable supplies in South America decline impacted by continued dry weather. World import demand for soybean meal is marginally up, while oil is down. U.S. season average price remains unchanged.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. Gulf Soybean Export Bids


U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in January averaged $469 per ton, up $22 from last month. The strength is attributed to reduced availability of South American crops, although the pace of U.S. sales remains behind year-ago levels.

As of the week-ending January 26, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 18.2 million tons, compared to 24.1 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 26.3 million tons compared to 38.4 million for the same period last year.

2011/12 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • With reduced exportable supplies caused by dry weather, Brazil’s soybean exports are slashed 1.2 million tons to 37.8 million, Argentina’s are cut 900,000 tons to 8.9 million, and Paraguay’s are lowered 800,000 tons to 5.0 million.
  • To reflect reduced availability in South America, China’s soybean imports are cut 1.0 million tons to 55.5 million, and EU-27 imports are cut 500,000 tons to 11.5 million.
  • Canada’s rapeseed exports are raised 800,000 tons to 8.0 million to reflect stronger demand from China and Mexico.
  • EU-27 rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.0 million on expectations of stronger demand for Australian rapeseed to partly offset reduced imports of soybeans.

February 2012

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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