TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

USDA Rice Outlook


14 December 2012

USDA Rice Outlook - 12 December 2012USDA Rice Outlook - 12 December 2012


USDA Rice Outlook

There were no supply side revisions this month to the U.S. 2012/13 rice balance sheet. Total supplies for 2012/13 remain forecast at 260.1 million cwt, almost 3 percent larger than a year earlier. A larger crop and increased imports are projected to more than offset a smaller carryin.

Although total use of U.S. rice in 2012/13 remains projected at 230.0 million cwt, there was a 2.0-million cwt shift from domestic and residual use to exports. The 2012/13 total export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 105.0 million cwt. This increase was offset by a 2.0-million cwt reduction in the domestic and residual use forecast to 125.0 million cwt. U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2012/13 remain projected at 30.1 million cwt, 27 percent below a year earlier.

There were no revisions to the U.S. season-average farm price forecasts this month. The long-grain 2012/13 SAFP remains forecast at $13.70-$14.70 per cwt, up from $13.40 per cwt a year earlier. The combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP remains forecast at $16.50-$17.50 per cwt, compared with $16.50 a year earlier.

The 2012/13 global rice production forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 465.3 million tons (milled basis). Production forecasts were raised this month for Ecuador, Japan, North Korea, Ukraine, and Vietnam; but lowered for South Korea and Cuba. The 2012/13 global rice disappearance forecast was raised 0.6 million tons to a record 468.5 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast, but 3.2 million tons below a year earlier.

Total calendar year 2013 global rice trade is forecast at 36.1 million tons, up 50,000 tons from last month’s forecast, but 6 percent below the year-earlier record. The U.S. 2013 export forecast was revised up this month, while 2013 import forecasts were raised for Gambia, Kenya, Peru, and Yemen.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher-quality non-specialty white milled-rice have changed very little over the past month. In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have decreased over the past month, mostly due to a lack of new sales. U.S. prices for both long-grain milled rice and medium-grain milled rice are unchanged from a month earlier.

Domestic Outlook

Total U.S. Rice Supplies Projected To Increase 3 Percent in 2012/13

There were no supply side revisions this month to the U.S. 2012/13 rice balance sheet. Total U.S. rice production in 2012/13 remains forecast at 198.5 million cwt, 7 percent larger than a year earlier. The average field yield remains forecast at a record 7,417 pounds per acre, 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Harvested area remains estimated at 2.68 million acres, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier.

The long-grain rice production remains forecast at 139.8 cwt, 20 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain production remains forecast at 58.7 million cwt, more than 14 percent below the year-earlier near-record.

Harvested area is estimated lower in all reported States in 2012/13 except Arkansas and Missouri, with Texas reporting the largest decline. Yields are forecast higher in all reported States except California, with yields record-high in Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas. The California crop was planted late and experienced an abnormally hot August. Arkansas and Missouri account for all of the expected increase in U.S. rice production in 2012/13, while production is projected smaller than a year earlier in the remaining States.

Total supplies for 2012/13 remain forecast at 260.1 million cwt, almost 3 percent larger than a year earlier. A larger crop and increased imports are projected to more than offset a smaller carryin. By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 182.1 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier. In contrast, medium- and short-grain supplies are forecast at 75.9 million cwt, 7 percent below a year earlier.

The 2012/13 all rice carryin remains estimated 41.1 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain 2012/13 carryin remains estimated at 24.3 million cwt, 32 percent below a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 14.7 million cwt, up 45 percent from a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice stocks estimate, are not classified by class.

Total rice imports for 2012/13 remain projected at 20.5 million cwt, 6 percent above a year earlier and the largest imports since 2007/08. Much of the increase is based on a 38,000-ton shipment of broken kernels from Vietnam reported in the U.S. Census September trade data. The United States typically imports very little rice from Vietnam and only imports brokens when domestic supplies are tight. Brokens are used almost exclusively in the United States for processed items such as beer and pet foods.

Long-grain imports remain projected at a record 18.0 million cwt, 6 percent higher than a year earlier. Thailand supplies the bulk of U.S. long-grain imports, mainly shipping its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for most of the remaining U.S. long-grain imports. Medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt for 2012/13, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand that is classified as medium- and short-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain imports. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for most of the remainder.

U.S. 2012/13 Export Forecast Raised 2.0 Million Cwt to 105.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2012/13 remains projected at 230.0 million cwt, nearly 9 percent above a year earlier. This month, 2.0 million cwt was shifted from domestic and residual use to exports. By class, long-grain total use remains projected at 167.0 million cwt, 15 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total use remains projected at 63.0 million cwt, 6 percent below a year earlier. The projected year-to-year decline in medium- and short-grain total use is based on tighter supplies and higher prices.

Total domestic and residual use of all-rice in 2012/13 is projected at 125.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but still 13 percent higher than a year earlier. For long-grain, 2012/13 domestic and residual use is projected at 93.0 million cwt, 2.0 million cwt below last month’s forecast, but 19 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 32.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year earlier.

Total exports of U.S. rice in 2012/13 are projected at 105.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and more than 3 percent above a year earlier. The upward revision was based on Census data through September, information from U.S. Export Sales through late November, and expectations regarding sales and shipments the remainder of the market year. Latin America accounts for most of this month’s upward revision in the U.S. 2012/13 export forecast.

By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Latin America is expected to remain the largest market for U.S. rough-rice exports, with Mexico the biggest buyer. Milled rice exports (combined milled- and brown-rice exports converted to a rough basis) are projected at 71.0 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 3 percent above a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Canada are the largest markets for U.S. milled rice exports.

By class, long-grain exports are projected at 74.0 million cwt, 2.0 million cwt above last month’s forecast and 11 percent above a year earlier. South America has been a stronger buyer in 2012/13 than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain exports remain projected at 31.0 million cwt, 11 percent below the year-earlier near-record. Some of the projected decline is based on stronger competition with Australia and Egypt.

U.S. ending stocks of all-rice in 2012/13 remain projected at 30.1 million cwt, 27 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 13.1 percent, down from 19.4 percent in 2011/12. By class, the 2012/13 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 15.1 million cwt, 38 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 9.0 percent, down from 16.8 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 2003/04. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 12.9 million cwt, 12 percent below a year earlier. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 20.5 percent, down from 21.9 percent in 2011/12.

U.S. Long-Grain Farm Price Projected To Be Higher in 2012/13

The 2012/13 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice remains forecast at $13.70-$14.70 per cwt, unchanged from last month, but up from $13.40 per cwt a year earlier. The higher U.S. long-grain price is primarily due to stronger export demand and expectations of a very tight ending stocks situation. However, the price increase is limited by weaker global trading prices.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP remains forecast at $16.50- $17.50 per cwt, compared with $16.50 a year earlier. Greater competition from Egypt and Australia limit any price increase due to smaller U.S. supplies.

In late November, NASS reported a mid-November U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $14.20 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised October estimate. The October price was lowered 20 cents from the mid-month estimate to $13.90. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-November NASS price was reported at $17.30 per cwt, up 90 cents from the revised October price. The October price was lowered $1.50 from the mid-month estimate to $16.40.

International Rice Market

Production Forecasts for 2012/13 Raised for Vietnam, Japan, and North Korea

Global rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 465.3 million tons (milled basis), up 1.0 million tons from last month’s forecast and fractionally above a year earlier. Global rice area is projected at 158.4 million hectares, 0.6 million hectares below a year earlier, with India accounting for most of the year-to-year decline. The average global yield is forecast at a record 4.38 tons per hectare, fractionally above 2011/12.

There were several upward revisions to 2012/13 production forecasts this month, mostly in Asia. First, Vietnam’s production was raised 0.610 million tons to a record 27.7 million tons based on information from the U.S. Post in Ho Chi Minh City indicating larger area. At a record 7.48 million hectares, rice area in Vietnam is up 100,000 hectares from a year ago, a result of strong prices at planting and only moderate flooding at planting that allowed growers to sow the spring crop early and expand area. Second, Japan’s 2012/13 production was raised 255,000 tons to 7.78 million based on larger area and a higher yield. The late season typhoons appear to have had little impact on yields. Third, North Korea’s 2012/13 production was raised 240,000 tons to 1.74 million based on a World Food Program/Food and Agricultural Organization report indicating a much higher yield. The report stated that sunshine and warm temperatures boosted yields and that typhoon damage was minor. Fourth, Ecuador’s production was revised up 80,000 tons to 1.03 million tons based on information from the U.S. Post in Quito indicating higher yields. Finally, Ukraine’s 2012/13 crop was raised 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on a higher yield.

These upward revisions were partially offset by two reductions. First, South Korea’s 2012/13 crop was lowered 94,000 tons to 4.0 million based on a lower yield caused by typhoons along the southwest coast, the major rice growing area. This is the smallest South Korean rice crop since 1980/81. And second, Cuba’s 2012/13 production was lowered 28,000 tons to 310,000 tons based on Government data reporting a smaller area resulting from drought in late spring and early summer.

The 2011/12 global production forecast was raised 0.2 million tons to 465.0 million tons. There were two upward revisions. First, Vietnam’s 2011/12 crop was raised 205,000 tons to 27.08 million based on slightly more area. Second, Cuba’s 2011/12 production was increased 32,000 tons to 370,000 tons based on larger area and a higher yield reported by the Government. These two upward revisions were partly offset by a 19,000-ton reduction in the 2011/12 Australian crop to 678,000 tons. The revised estimates are from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Global rice disappearance for 2012/13 is projected at a record 468.5 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month’s forecast, but more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. The consumption forecast was raised this month for Japan and North Korea, but lowered slightly for the United States. On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam account for most of the expected increase in global domestic use.

Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast, but 3.2 million tons below a year earlier. Global ending stocks in 2012/13 are the second highest in a decade. Ending stocks forecasts were raised this month for Japan and Vietnam. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2012/13 is calculated at 21.9 percent, down from 23.0 percent a year earlier.

2012 Global Trade Forecast Raised to a Record 38.5 Million Tons

Total calendar year 2013 global rice trade is forecast at 36.1 million tons, up 50,000 tons from last month’s forecast, but 6 percent below the year-earlier record. In 2013, the top global buyers in 2012—China and West Africa—are expected to import less rice.

There was only one 2013 export revision this month. The 2013 U.S. export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 3.45 million based on a very strong pace thus far in the 2012/13 market year. U.S. exports in 2013 are projected to be up 150,000 tons from 2012.

There were four upward revisions to 2013 import forecasts, Yemen’s import forecast was raised 75,000 tons to a record 425,000 tons based on stronger than expected shipments from India. Peru’s 2013 import forecast was increased 25,000 tons to 200,000 tons based on a higher 2012 estimate. Gambia’s 2013 import forecast was raised 20,000 tons to 135,000 tons, also based on a higher 2012 estimate. Finally, Kenya’s 2013 import forecast was revised up 20,000 tons to 360,000 tons based on stronger imports in 2012.

These upward revisions were partially offset by three downward revisions in 2013 imports. First, Iran’s 2013 import forecast was lowered 150,000 tons to 1.8 million based on weaker imports in 2012. Iran’s imports are still the second highest on record. Second, North Korea’s 2013 import forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 75,000 tons based a smaller 2012 import forecast and larger supplies. Finally, Ukraine’s 2013 import forecast was lowered 10,000 tons to 70,000 tons based on larger supplies and weaker imports in 2012.

The 2012 global trade forecast was revised up to 38.5 million tons, 6 percent above a year earlier and the highest on record. The high global trade level in 2012 is largely due to record exports from India and Vietnam, and very large purchases from China and West Africa.

There was only one 2012 export revision this month. Vietnam’s 2012 export forecast was raised 300,000 tons to a record 7.5 million tons based on a stronger-than-expected pace to date and larger supplies. Vietnam’s shipments to China have been especially strong and Vietnam’s prices are very competitive.

There were several 2012 import revisions this month, mostly based on final 2011/12 trade data from major exporters. First, Iraq’s 2012 imports were raised 100,000 tons to a record 1.35 million. Yemen’s 2012 imports were raised 60,000 tons to 400,000 tons based on strong shipments from India. Costa Rica’s 2012 imports were raised 15,000 tons to 65,000 based on shipment pace. Ecuador’s 2012 imports were raised 15,000 tons to 35,000 tons based on stronger than expected border trade with Peru. Smaller downward revisions in 2012 import forecasts were made this month for both Gambia and Mexico.

These upward revisions in 2012 import forecasts were partially offset by 4 reductions. First, Iran’s 2012 import forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 1.7 million tons based on weaker shipments from Thailand and smaller transshipments from the United Arab Emirates. Second, Cuba’s 2012 imports were lowered 75,000 tons to 450,000 tons based on a slow pace of shipments in the second half of the year. Third, Turkey’s 2012 import forecast was lowered 60,000 tons to 240,000 tons based on a slower-thanexpected shipment pace. Fourth, Ukraine’s 2012 import forecast was reduced 25,000 tons to 50,000 tons based on shipment pace and weaker consumption. Finally, North Korea’s 2012 import forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 75,000 tons based on a much larger crop.

Thailand’s Trading Prices Are Unchanged; Vietnam’s Prices Have Declined

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher quality non-specialty white milled-rice have changed very little over the past month, with Thailand uncompetitive in many markets due to its Paddy Pledging Scheme. In contrast, prices for parboiled rice—a specialty rice—have declined, largely due to a lack of new sales.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $573 per ton for the week ending December 3, unchanged from a month earlier. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $559 per ton for the week ending December 3, down just $1 from a month earlier. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $571 per ton for the week ending December 3, down $23 from the week ending November 5. Prices for Thailand’s brokens have not changed over the past month. For the week ending December 3, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $523 per ton, unchanged from a month earlier. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice—an aromatic—were quoted at $1,069 per ton for the week ending December 3, down $9 from a month earlier. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Bangkok.

In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have decreased over the past month, mostly due to a lack of new sales. For the week ending December 4, prices for Vietnam’s 5- percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $430 per ton— down $25 per ton from the week ending November 6. Thailand’s price quotes for 5- percent brokens are currently $129 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, up $17 per ton from a month earlier.

U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have remained unchanged over the past month, as the impacts from strong sales and a larger crop this year are offsetting. For the week ending December 4, prices for high-quality Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $595 per ton, unchanged from a month earlier. U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) was quoted at $360 per ton for the week ending December 4, unchanged from the week ending October 9.

Prices for California milled rice have also remained unchanged over the past month. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (sacked) for domestic sales was quoted at $783 per ton for the week ending December 4, unchanged from a month earlier. Export prices (for 30 kg bags, fob vessel) for California milled rice were quoted at $815 per ton for the week ending December 4, unchanged from a month earlier. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice prices, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

December 2012

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance