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USDA World Agricultural Production


12 February 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - February 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - February 2013


USDA World Agricultural Production

Source: AWiFS (56 meter) imagery in false color bands 3 (NIR), 4 (SWIR), 2 (Red); ESRI 2010; and GPS data.
Feb. 7, 2013

Brazil Corn: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall

The USDA forecasts Brazil corn production for 2012/13 at 72.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month, but down 0.5 million tons or less than 1 percent from last year’s record production. Area is estimated at a record 15.5 million hectares, no change from last month, but up 300 thousand or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 4.68 tons per hectare, up 12 percent compared to the 5-year average. Yield prospects for Brazil’s first season corn have improved due to good grain-fill conditions in the key states of Paraná and Goiás. Conditions are mixed in Rio Grande do Sul. Weather in late February will be a key determinant of yield potential for that state. Brazil has a larger second-season, or safrinha crop, which accounts for more than 54 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is planted in January after the early-season soybean harvest. In late January 2013 analysts from the Foreign Agricultural Service traveled through Mato Grosso’s main safrinha producing state. Rain in Mato Grosso is causing some delays in harvesting of the early soybean varieties but farmers are able to harvest the soybeans and plant the safrinha corn. Corn planting can extend to the beginning of March in Mato Grosso but farmers are anxious to plant right now because the earlier planted corn has higher yield potential. The safrinha yield potential is determined by the length of the rainy season. Last year the rainy season in Mato Grosso extended through June, and record yields for safrinha corn were achieved. The rainy season typically ends in mid to late April. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)

Argentina Corn: Conditions Vary From Region-to-Region

Southern Santa Fe and Buenos Aires, Argentina

Especially within Buenos Aires, corn losses from earlier flooding and now lack of moisture for top soils in the Northwest show loss of planted area.

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2012/13 at 27.0 million metric tons, 4 percent below last month and 29 percent above the 21.0 million produced in 2011/12. Harvested area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year’s drought-affected national area. Yield is estimated at 7.71 tons per hectare, 4 percent lower than last month but 32 percent higher than last year. Crop condition as well as crop development vary across regions and from field to field, making it difficult to infer yield response to the changing weather. Some of the Argentine corn now at grain-fill stage has base leaves turning yellow due to both moisture-deficit and to corn mite infestation, resulting in potential yield loss. Farmers have been battling armyworms and stem borers as well as blight and smut in areas that earlier had excess moisture but now have low surface moisture. Additional rainfall is needed across much of the nation to remove current soil moisture deficits of 40 up to 80 millimeters. Harvest has begun in northern and central Argentina, just as late seeding is finishing in the south. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, 202-720-0107.)

Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall

The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2012/13 at 83.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 17.0 million or 26 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Area is estimated at a record 27.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 2.5 million hectares or 10 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.04 tons per hectare, compared to 2.66 tons last year and the 5-year average of 2.85 tons. Yield prospects for Brazil soybeans have improved due to good early-season conditions in the key states of Mato Grosso, Parana and Bahia. In late January 2013 analysts from the Foreign Agricultural Service traveled through Brazil’s main soybean producing state, Mato Grosso, and a key swing state, Bahia. Soybean crop conditions in both states were observed to be very good. Harvesting of the early soybean varieties has started in Mato Grosso, and soybean yields are reported by contacts in the region to be as good as last year. In Bahia contacts are expecting soybean yields to be significantly better compared to the drought induced lower yields of last year. Rains during the harvest of the earlyseason varieties in Mato Grosso are causing some delays and may affect the quality of the early soybeans, but the rains are boosting yield potential for the medium and long-cycle soybeans. The main soybean harvest in Mato Grosso will commence in late February. Brazilian farmers enthusiastically reacted to high soybean prices this year and increased area 10 percent to a record 27.5 million hectares. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, surpassing the United States this year when the United States suffered its worst drought in 50 years. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)

Argentina Soybeans: Soy Progressing But Dry Weather Heightens Concerns

Argentine soybean production for the 2012/13 season is estimated at 53.0 million metric tons 2 percent less than last month and 32 percent more than last year. Area is estimated at 19.5 million hectares unchanged from last month and 11 percent more than last year. Yield is forecast to be 2.72 tons per hectare, 2 percent lower than last month and 19 percent higher than last year. The seeding of the crop is complete, even in the northern region that earlier was too dry to seed. Most of the early-planted crop is in pod-set, while the second crop and late-planted beans are largely in the moisture sensitive reproductive stage. Farmers are scouting fields for caterpillars to determine if threshold levels warrant insecticide spraying at this time. A lack of moisture in some areas and the limited and widely dispersed rains, seen within the last 15 days have caused concern for the crop. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, 202-720-0107.)

China Cotton: 2012/13 Production Greater than Expected

China: Cotton Production by Province

Cotton production for 2012/13 is estimated at 34.0 million bales (7.4 million tons), up 0.5 million or 1.5 percent from last month and up nearly 3 percent from last year. Estimated area was increased to 5.3 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month but down 2 percent from a year ago. Yield is estimated at 1403 kilograms per hectare, unchanged from last month but up 5 percent from last year’s record yield. The revision this month is based on updated harvest, procurement, and cotton shipment data from Chinese government and cotton industry sources. In particular, harvest results continue to exceed previous expectations in Northwest China, where higher planted area and favorable weather during the 2012 growing season resulted in record output. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

Kazakhstan Wheat: Harvest Falls Almost 13 Million Tons From Last Year

Kazakhstan: Estimated Wheat Production

The USDA estimates Kazakhstan wheat production for 2012/13 at 9.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month and down 12.9 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.4 million hectares against 13.7 million last year, and yield is estimated at 0.79 tons per hectare, down 52 percent from last year and 32 percent lower than the 5-year average. The month-to-month revision is based on final harvest data released by the Kazakhstan State Statistical Agency (SSA) in January. Spring wheat comprises about 95 percent of Kazakhstan’s total wheat output. Severe drought in north-central Kazakhstan, the country’s main wheat-production region, had an enormous impact on yield in 2012. The yield, however, was slightly higher than in 2010, which was also marked by devastating summer drought. The output reported by the SSA for 2012/13 was considerably lower than preliminary harvest-progress data from the Ministry of Agriculture were indicating. In November, Ministry officials pegged wheat production at approximately 11.2 million tons according to yield data reported by regional agricultural authorities, but the final SSA number was about 12 percent lower than the Ministry estimate. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

February 2013

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