TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

USDA Rice Outlook


13 March 2013

USDA Rice Outlook - March 2013USDA Rice Outlook - March 2013

The only supply side revision this month to the 2012/13 US rice balance sheet was a 0.5 million cwt increase in imports to 21.5 million cwt, the second highest imports on record. The higher import forecast raised total supplies to 262.1 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier.
USDA Rice Outlook

US 2012/13 Rice Export Forecast Raised to 108.0 Million Cwt

The 2012/14 U.S. rice export forecast was raised 2.0 million cwt to 108.0 million cwt, an increase of 6 percent from a year earlier. Sales to Iran and Latin America have been stronger this year than expected. Total domestic and residual use of all-rice in 2012/13 remains projected at 125.0 million cwt. These revisions resulted in a 1.5-million cwt reduction in the ending stocks forecast to 29.1 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier.

The 2012/13 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is forecast at $14.20-$14.80 per cwt, with the mid-point up 20 cents from the mid-point of last month’s forecast of $14.00-$14.60 per cwt. The combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP is forecast at $15.60-$16.20 per cwt, with the mid-point down 30 cents from last month’s mid-point.

In the global market, the 2012/13 world production forecast was raised 2.3 million tons to a record 468.1 million tons, with productions forecasts raised for Cambodia, India, and Peru. Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2012/13 is projected at a record 470.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast. The 2012/13 global ending stocks forecast was raised 1.4 million tons to 103.3 million tons.

The 2013 global rice trade forecast was raised slightly to 37.4 million tons, still 1.6 million tons below the year-earlier record. Export forecasts were raised this month for Cambodia, India, and the United States. There were several minor offsetting revisions to 2012 trade estimates based on year-end shipment data.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium quality white milled rice decreased slightly over the past month, mostly due to Government sales of stored rice to selected millers and exporters. Price quotes from Vietnam have declined since late February, but are unchanged from a month earlier, with the pace of sales well behind last year. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased over the past month, largely due to a strong pace of sales and tightening U.S. supplies. Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market have remained unchanged over the past month.

Domestic Outlook

US 2012/13 Rice Import Forecast Raised to 21.5 Million Cwt

The only supply side revision this month to the 2012/13 U.S. rice balance sheet (on a rough-equivalent basis) was a 0.5-million cwt increase in imports to 21.5 million cwt, up 11 percent from a year earlier and the second highest imported amount on record. This month’s upward revision was based on U.S. shipment data through January and expectations regarding imports the remainder of the market year. Imports from Vietnam and India have been well ahead of a year earlier.

Thailand remains the largest supplier, accounting for around 70 percent of U.S. rice imports. India and Pakistan typically account for the bulk of the remaining U.S. rice imports. Specialty rices, mostly aromatics, account for nearly all of shipments to the United States from these three major Asian exporters. This year, Vietnam shipped almost 37,000 tons of brokens to the U.S. in September. Vietnam typically supplies little rice to the United States.

Long-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in U.S. rice imports this month. At 19.0 million cwt, U.S. long-grain imports are up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 12 percent larger than a year earlier. These are the highest U.S. long-grain imports on record. Medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt for 2012/13, up 3 percent from a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand, classified as medium- and short-grain, accounts for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain imports. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for most of the remainder.

The U.S. crop remains estimated at 199.5 million cwt, 8 percent larger than a year earlier, a result of both expanded area and a record yield. Harvested area remains estimated at 2.68 million acres, up 2 percent from a year earlier, but still the second smallest since 1987/88. The 2012/13 average yield remains estimated at 7,449 pounds per acre, 382 pounds above last year. Early planting across much of the South was a major factor behind the record all-rice and long-grain yields.

The 2012/13 all rice carryin remains estimated at 41.1 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain 2012/13 carryin remains estimated at 24.3 million cwt, 32 percent below a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 14.7 million cwt, up 45 percent from a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice stocks estimate, are not specified by class.

Total supplies for 2012/13 are forecast at 262.1 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and almost 4 percent larger than a year earlier. A larger crop and near-record imports are projected to more than offset a smaller carryin. By class, long-grain supplies are projected at 187.4 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 11 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain supplies remain forecast at 72.5 million cwt, 11 percent below a year earlier.

US 2012/13 Export Forecast Raised to 108.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2012/13 is projected at 233.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 10 percent above a year earlier. The upward revision is due to a higher export forecast. By class, long-grain total use is projected at 171.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 18 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain total use remains projected at 62.0 million cwt, more than 7 percent below a year earlier. The expected decline is mostly due to tighter supplies and higher prices.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2012/13 remains projected at 125.0 million cwt, 13.5 percent higher than a year earlier. For long-grain, 2012/13 domestic and residual use remains projected at 94.0 million cwt, 21 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 31.0 million, 4 percent below a year earlier.

Total exports of U.S. all rice in 2012/13 are projected at 108.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from last month and 6 percent above a year earlier. The upward revision was largely driven by larger than expected sales to Iran and Latin America. Based on data from the February 28 U.S. Export Sales, total outstanding commercial sales and exports of all rice (based on actual shipment weight) were 19 percent ahead of a year earlier. By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Latin America is the largest market for U.S. rough rice exports.

Milled rice exports (combined milled- and brown-rice exports converted to a rough basis) remain projected at 73.0 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 6 percent above a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Canada are the largest markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. Haiti is the largest market for U.S. milled rice in the Western Hemisphere, taking almost exclusively long-grain rice.

By class, long-grain exports are projected at 77.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million from the previous forecast and 15 percent above a year earlier. South America has been a stronger buyer of U.S. rice in 2012/13 than in the previous year. In addition, Iran has purchased more than 91,000 tons of U.S. long-grain milled rice, with 60,000 tons already shipped. These are the first significant purchases of U.S. rice by Iran since 2008/09. Medium- and short-grain exports remain projected at 31.0 million cwt, 11 percent below the year-earlier near record. Some of the projected decline is based on stronger competition with Australia and Egypt.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2012/13 are projected at 29.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 29 percent below a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 12.5 percent, down from 19.4 percent in 2011/12 and the lowest since 2003/04. By class, the 2012/13 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 16.5 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 32 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 9.6 percent, down from 16.8 percent a year earlier and the smallest since 2003/04. The medium- and short-grain carryout remains projected at 10.5 million cwt, almost 29 percent below a year earlier. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 16.9 percent, down from 21.9 percent in 2011/12.

US 2012/13 Long-Grain Season-Average Price Forecast Raised

The 2012/13 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is forecast at $14.20-$14.80 per cwt, with the mid-point up 20 cents from the mid-point of last month’s forecast of $14.00-$14.60 per cwt. The upward revision was based on monthly reported cash prices through mid-February and expectations regarding prices for the remainder of the market year.

The 2012/13 long-grain SAFP is well above the 2011/12 SAFP of $13.40 per cwt. The higher U.S. long-grain price in 2012/13 is primarily due to stronger global demand for U.S. rice and expectations of a tight U.S. ending-stocks situation. However, the U.S. price increase is limited by weaker global trading prices.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2012/13 U.S. SAFP is forecast at $15.60- $16.20 per cwt, with the mid-point down 30 cents from last month’s mid-point. The 2012/13 medium- and short-grain SAFP is well below the 2011/12 SAFP of $17.10. Greater competition from Egypt and Australia in the global market accounts for much of the projected price decline for U.S. medium- and short-grain rice in 2012/13.

In late February, NASS reported a mid-February U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.10 per cwt, up 70 cents from the revised January estimate and the highest since January 2009. The January price was lowered 30 cents from the mid-month estimate to $14.40. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-February NASS price was reported at $16.00 per cwt, up $1.00 from the January revised price. The January price was lowered 50 cents from the mid-month estimate to $15.00 per cwt.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2012/13 Raised for Cambodia, India, and Peru

Global rice production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 468.1 million tons (milled basis), up 2.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 1.9 million tons above the year-earlier revised estimate. Global rice area in 2012/13 is projected at 158.5 million hectares, 0.4 million hectares below the year-earlier record, with India accounting for most of the year-to-year decline. The average global yield is forecast at a record 4.40 tons per hectare, up from 4.37 tons in 2011/12.

There were three upward revisions to 2012/13 production forecasts this month. First, India’s production was raised 2.0 million tons to 101.0 million tons because of a higher yield. The Government of India’s recently released Second Advanced Estimate reported a larger than expected Kharif crop, which typically accounts for 85 percent of India’s annual rice production. India’s total rice crop is the second highest on record.

Second, Cambodia’s 2012/13 production forecast was raised 375,000 tons to a record 4.6 million tons based on larger area and a record yield. At 2.95 million hectares, total rice area in Cambodia is the highest on record. Cambodia’s rice area dropped sharply during the 1970s due to severe political upheaval and war, and has only returned to pre-war levels within the past decade. And third, Peru’s 2012/13 production estimate was raised 98,000 tons to a record 2.1 million tons based on good weather conditions and plenty of water during the planting season (October- December) which has resulted in higher yields. In addition, more land was converted to rice on the high-yielding eastern Andes, another factor behind a projected record average yield. Peru’s the total area estimate was lowered slightly this month.

These three upward revisions were partially offset by a 210,000-ton reduction in Sri Lanka’s forecast to 2.65 million tons due to excessive rains that reduced area for the Maha crop which accounts for almost 65 percent of the total crop. The average yield forecast was actually raised. Harvest of the Maha crop begins this month.

The 2011/12 global crop estimate was raised 1.2 million tons this month to 466.2 million tons, up almost 4 percent from a year earlier. There were two revisions. First, India’s 2011/12 crop estimate was raised 0.99 million tons to a record 105.3 million tons based on a higher yield reported by the Government of India. The Government also reported a record Kharif crop in 2011/12. Second, Peru’s 2011/12 crop was raised 171,000 tons to 1.84 million based on information from the USDA office in Lima indicating more land and higher yields than previously expected, a result of timely rain in the rice-growing areas.

Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2012/13 is projected at a record 470.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. The consumption forecasts were raised for Cambodia and India. On a year-to-year basis, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam account for most of the expected increase in global domestic and residual use.

Global ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 103.3 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month’s forecast, but 2.2 million tons below a year earlier. Ending stocks forecasts were raised this month for Cambodia and India, but lowered for the United States. Global ending stocks in 2012/13 are the second highest in a decade. On a year-to-year basis, stocks are projected to be smaller in India, Indonesia, the United States, and Vietnam, but higher in China, Pakistan, and Thailand. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2012/13 is calculated at 22.0 percent, down from 23.0 percent a year earlier.

Export Forecasts for 2013 Raised for Cambodia, India, and the United States

Total calendar year 2013 global rice trade is forecast at 37.4 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast, but still 1.6 million tons below the yearearlier record. There were four 2013 export revisions this month. First, Cambodia’s 2013 export forecast was raised 150,000 tons to a record 975,000 based on a much larger crop. Cambodia’s 2013 exports are projected to be 21 percent higher than last year. The bulk of Cambodia’s rice exports are shipped to Vietnam and Thailand. Second, India’s 2013 export forecast was raised 100,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, also a result of a larger crop. Although India’s exports are projected to decline 35 percent in 2013, they are still the second highest on record. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for the most of the decline in India’s exports in 2013.

Third, the U.S. 2013 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 3.5 million tons, 6 percent above a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was based on a fasterthan- expected pace of sales since last fall. Finally, Peru’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 10,000 tons to 50,000 tons based on recommendations from the USDA office in Lima.

The only 2013 import revision this month was a 50,000-ton increase in Peru’s imports to 250,000 tons based on information from the USDA office in Lima.

On a year-to-year basis, a big drop in exports from India and smaller shipments from Vietnam are expected to more than offset larger exports from Cambodia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the United States. On the 2013 global import side, big declines in imports by Egypt, Indonesia, and West Africa are projected to more than offset larger purchases by Bangladesh, the European Union, and South Korea. The substantial projected increase in South Korea’s 2013 imports is based solely on the timing of its annual WTO commitments.

There were several minor revisions to 2012 import and export estimates based on year-end shipment data that virtually netted out any total trade change. Global 2013 rice trade remains estimated at a record 39.1 million tons, an increase of 8 percent from a year earlier. Record shipments from India and Vietnam accounted for most of the increase in exports in 2012. On the import side, record imports by China and West Africa were behind much of the boost in purchases.

Thailand’s Trading Prices Drop Slightly on Sales of Government-Stored Rice

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality white milled rice decreased slightly over the past month, mostly due to Government sales of its stored rice to select millers and exporters. Prices for lower-quality rice from Thailand increased slightly.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $574 per ton for the week ending March 4, down $2 from the week ending February 4. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $560 per ton for the week ending March 4, down $4 from the week ending February 4. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $568 per ton for the week ending March 4, down $8 from the week ending February 8.

Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice—an aromatic variety—were quoted at $1,119 per ton for the week ending March 4, up $1 from the week ending February 4. In contrast, prices for Thailand’s brokens have increased. For the week ending March 4, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $535 per ton, up $2 from the week ending February 4. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the USDA office in Bangkok.

Price quotes from Vietnam have declined since late February but are unchanged from a month earlier. Prices are limited by a much slower pace of sales this year and the onset of a bumper winter-spring harvest. For the week ending March 5, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $390 per ton, down $15 from late February, but unchanged from the week ending February 5. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $170 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, little changed from a month earlier.

U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have increased over the past month, largely due to a strong pace of sales and tightening U.S. supplies. Haiti, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Ghana have been the top buyers of U.S. long-grain milled rice in 2012/13. For the week ending March 5, prices for high-quality Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4- percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $628 per ton, up $16 from the week ending March 5 and the highest since December 2008. In contrast, U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $370 per ton for the week ending March 5, unchanged from a month earlier.

Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market have remained unchanged over the past month. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (sacked) for domestic sales remain quoted at $750 per ton for the week ending March 5, unchanged since late December. Export prices (for 30 kg bags, fob vessel) for California milled rice were quoted at $700 per ton for the week ending March 5, unchanged since late January. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium grain milled-rice prices, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

March 2013

DOWNLOAD REPORT:- Download this report here

Share This


Related Reports

Reports By Country

Reports By Category

Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance