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USDA World Agricultural Production


11 April 2013

USDA World Agricultural Production - April 2013USDA World Agricultural Production - April 2013

The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts Brazil corn production for 2012/13 at a record 74.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 1.0 million tons or 1 percent from the previous record in 2011/12.
USDA World Agricultural Production

Brazil Corn: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall

Safrinha Corn in Mato Grosso, Brazil is Above Average and Similar to Last Year

In the center part of Mato Grosso state, vegetation conditions are doing well-similar to last year (yellow line) and better than average (black line)

Normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) show characteristic bi-modal pattern of soybeans from October to mid-February then Safrinha corn from mid-February to June

Area is estimated at a record 15.5 million hectares, no change from last month but up 300,000 hectares or 2 percent from last year. Total corn yield is forecast at 4.77 tons per hectare, higher than the 5-year average, but short of last year’s record yield of 4.80 tons per hectare.

Brazilian corn yield increased due to beneficial and consistent rains since late February for the Safrinha crop in Mato Grosso, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. The Safrinha corn yield potential in Mato Grosso is determined by the length of the rainy season. Last year the rainy season in Mato Grosso extended through June and record yields for Safrinha corn were achieved. The rainy season typically ends in mid to late April.

Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First season corn is planted in September and harvested in March. Production largely serves the domestic feed market. A larger second- season, or Safrinha crop, accounts for more than 54 percent of national production. The Safrinha crop is planted after the early-season soybean harvest. Mato Grosso is the largest producer, accounting for 40 percent. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, taken together, produce over 40 percent. In Mato Grosso rain caused minor delays in harvesting of the early soybean varieties but farmers were able to harvest the soybeans and plant the Safrinha corn. Corn planting was finished in Mato Grosso by mid March. Ideally they would have finished by early March. The southern states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul plant corn later than in Mato Grosso. Corn planting in Paraná was essentially complete by the end of March.

European Union Corn: Final Estimates Revised Upwards for 2012/13

The 2012/13 European Union (EU) corn crop is revised to 56.1 million tons, up 1.4 million tons or 3 percent higher than last month, but down 10.1 million tons or 15 percent from the 2011/12 crop. Corn area in the EU is estimated at 9.1 million hectares, 0.2 million or 2 percent above last month, and 0.3 million hectares or 4 percent above the previous 2011/12 season. Yield is estimated at 6.13 tons per hectare, nearly unchanged from last month, but 18 percent below the 7.51 tons achieved in 2011/12, and 10 percent below the 5-year average.

Poland Corn

Increased Corn Area Due ti Lowered Winter Grains Led to Record Corn Production

Revisions were made to the 2012/13 corn crop in Poland, Hungary, and Spain. The increase in Poland was due to record yields, achieved on record area. Summer crop area was dramatically increased last spring after winter had destroyed or damaged extensive area that had been sown with winter wheat or rapeseed. Much of this area was re-sown last spring with corn. As a result, the estimated 2012/13 corn crop in Poland was harvested on 79 percent more area than its 5-year average. In addition, with yields 16 percent above average, production in Poland is revised up 0.4 million tons from last month to 4.0 million tons, or 67 percent above last year’s production, and over twice the 5-year average.

Estimates from Hungary were also increased this month in response to higher final estimates. Primarily, the changes were due to a decrease in corn cut for silage, with its area and production being transferred into grain corn. Additionally, there was also an increase in corn grown in marginal areas. Hungary’s 2011/12 corn estimate is raised 0.14 million hectares from last month to 1.19 million hectares, while production was increased 0.49 million tons to 4.7 million tons. Due to extreme heat and severe drought last summer, the 2012/13 Hungary corn crop is estimated to total just about 2/3 of its 5-year average.

Corn in Spain has also been revised up, with production increased 0.51 million tons from last month, and area increased 35,000 hectares. These increases in Spain result in estimated 2011/12 production of 4.1 million tons from 0.39 million hectares. These estimates are based on official statistics from the Agriculture Ministry and are above the 5-year average of 0.35 million hectares and 3.6 million tons.

Paraguay Soybean Production and Harvested Area

Paraguay soybean production and harvested area for the last ten years, including this record year for production 2012/13

Paraguay Soybeans: Record Area, Yield and Production Set

Paraguay soybean production for 2012/13 is estimated at a record 8.35 million tons, 8 percent more than last month and 92 percent more than last year’s drought-reduced crop. Area harvested is estimated at a record 3.0 million hectares, 0.1 million less than last month but up 0.2 million from last year. Yield is also estimated at a record, 2.78 tons per hectare.

Improvements in farm practices, use of biotech soy, timely rains, warm temperatures and a relatively Paraguaunhampered harvest are helping Paraguay to achieve a record high soybean yield. Adequate infrastructure allowed the transmission of strong world demand into the Paraguay market. One Paraguayan hub for agricultural products is the city of Puerto Presidente Stroessner, where Paraguay connects with Brazil by the Friendship Bridge. Asunción, the next busiest but a congested port, can handle crop exports with better berthing facilities and cargo handling equipment for soybeans and processed soybean products than smaller ports.

Uruguay Soybeans: Record Area and Production Forecast

Uruguay soybean production for 2012/13 is estimated at 3.0 million tons, up 58 percent from last month and 10 percent more than last year’s revised estimate. Harvested area is estimated at 1.13 million hectares, 18 percent higher than last month. Yield is estimated at a record 2.67 tons per hectare, a 34 percent increase from last month.

The revisions are based on official Uruguay government estimates. Timely rains have helped achieve the record yield. Strong world demand and improvements to infrastructure are allowing for a strong upward trend in soybean harvested area over the last several years.

Pakistan Rice: Output Projected Smaller than Expected

Landsat observations provided alternative data for estimating vegetation areas under flood in upper Sindh and Baluchistan, September 2012

Pakistan’s 2012/13 rice production is estimated at 6 million tons (milled), down 0.8 million or 11.8 percent from last month and down approximately 3 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 2.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.8 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.33 tons per hectare, down 11.8 percent from last month and down 1.4 percent from last year.

Rice harvest operations are completed and current data on harvest returns indicate significantly lower output than previously projected. The substantial production decline is attributed to decline in area planted and below-average yield returns. Annual decline in area planted was primarily due to early season poor rains, poor irrigation water availability and a slow sowing rate due to unseasonably low temperatures. The major rice growing provinces, Punjab and Sindh, reported 0.6 and 9 percent less area planted compared to last year, respectively. In addition to the poor moisture conditions at the start of the growing season, yield prospects were also affected by excessive rainfall and flooding in some parts of the country during August-September.

In particular, excessive precipitation triggered overland floods and river flooding in Baluchistan and Sindh provinces. Preliminary satellite-based flood damage assessment and crop outlook indicated low-to-moderate loss of cropland and crop damage. However, more recent analysis of crop maturity indices and harvest output data shows that the rice crop in Baluchistan and Sindh experienced severe yield penalties. Excessive rainfall and flooding at advanced crop stages resulted in overall 5 percent lower yields than the 5-year average. Late season improvements in soil moisture and crop conditions were not enough to offset the poor yield prospects.

Indonesia Palm Oil Yield Statistics

Indonesia Palm Oil: Yield Growth Continues to Fuel Higher Production

Indonesia’s 2012/13 palm oil production is forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year’s record harvest. Crop yields were higher than previously expected, leading to increased exports and domestic ending stocks. The USDA also increased the 2011/12 palm oil production forecast to 26.2 million tons, up 0.3 million or 1 percent from last month. Indonesia has recorded consistently strong annual trend yield growth, increasing at approximately 3 percent per annum, and the new 2012/13 estimate reflects the maintenance of that expectation. It is estimated that approximately 50 percent of all land sown to oil palm in the country is less than 8 years of age, an early development phase coinciding with rapid growth in yield capacity. This large population of young trees with strongly growing output potential is expected to underpin continued future national yield growth.

March 2013

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