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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


13 June 2013

USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade - June 2013USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade - June 2013

After a slow start, Brazil’s monthly soybean exports reached a record 8 million tons in May. Strong demand, as evidenced by record number of ships awaiting loading, and round-the-clock loading contributed to the extraordinary exports over the past two months.
USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

Brazil Ships Soybeans at Record Pace

Brazilian Monthly Soybeans Exports

Early concerns over Brazil’s internal logistical ability to meet that demand in a timely manner have diminished, substantiating a larger export forecast and reduced October 1 stocks. However, it remains to be seen whether or not large soybean shipments can be sustained in the face of strong foreign demand for corn from the upcoming second-crop harvest.

Overview

For 2013/14, global soybean production and trade are reduced slightly with a smaller crop and exports from Ukraine. The season average U.S. farm price is up reflecting strong futures prices.

For 2012/13, global soybean production is down with a reduced crop in Brazil. World trade is slightly lower as reductions in the United States and Argentina are partly offset by larger Brazilian exports. Global soybean meal imports are unchanged, while higher for oil. The season average U.S. farm price is up slightly.

Soybean Prices

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in May averaged $588/ton, up sizably from the previous month. The rise reflects tight nearby supplies and continued strong demand for crush.

U.S. Gulf Soybean Export Bids

As of the week-ending June 6, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 21.6 million tons compared to 22.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 36.6 million tons, compared to 36.4 million for the same period last year.

2013/14 Trade Outlook

  • Ukraine’s soybean exports are cut 100,000 tons to 1.9 million on a reduced crop.
  • EU sunflower seed exports are reduced 150,000 tons to 350,000 on a smaller crop.
  • Russia’s sunflower seed exports are doubled to 200,000 tons with near record supplies.

2012/13 Trade Outlook

  • U.S. soybean exports are cut 545,000 tons to 36.2 million on cancellations and continued weak shipments in May, while imports are up 136,000 tons to 680,000 on recent purchases from South America. Soybean meal exports are up 453,000 tons to 9.4 million reflecting strong sales and shipments to date.
  • Argentina’s soybean exports are cut 1.3 million tons to 7.8 million on continued slow shipments. Soybean meal exports are cut 620,000 tons to 25.4 million on slower crush to date.
  • Brazil’s soybean exports are up 1.6 million tons to 37.9 million reflecting large shipments in May.
  • Mexico’s soybean imports are cut 200,000 tons to 3.4 million based on slower U.S. shipments.
  • Russia’s soybean meal imports are cut 100,000 tons to 500,000 on a slow purchases to April.
  • China’s soybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to a record 1.3 million supported by continued strong sales to neighboring countries. Rapeseed imports are boosted 300,000 tons to 2.4 million reflecting changes in import measures, notably the removal of a ban on rapeseed from Australia and increases in entry points. With record imports in April, rapeseed oil imports are also raised 150,000 tons to 1.2 million.
  • EU palm oil imports are boosted 100,000 tons to 5.8 million on expectations of stronger demand in the food sector, filling behind soybean oil and rapeseed oil that are destined for foreign markets.
  • Pakistan’s and United Arab Emirates’ rapeseed imports are cut 200,000 tons and 100,000 tons, respectively, to 550,000 on a slower pace to date.

June 2013

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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