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USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade


13 June 2013

USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - June 2013USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade - June 2013

Whereas US cotton exports to China have eased over the past ten months, shipments to other countries have jumped by more than 50 percent for a variety of reasons.
USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade Reports

Strong Demand Beyond China for U.S. Cotton

Weaker competition due to tighter global supplies, especially from India, has caused import demand from large markets like Pakistan and Vietnam to shift to the United States. Smaller crops in some other key producing countries, like Turkey and Pakistan, have supported demand for additional U.S. supplies to meet growing consumption.

US Exports: August 1-May 30

In Southeast Asia, strong demand for U.S. cotton has been triggered by rising Asian demand for textiles produced by Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Since domestic production supplies only about 5 percent of consumption, these countries are highly dependent on imports. Tightening exportable supplies from Brazil and Australia have provided an opportunity to ship additional U.S. cotton to Southeast Asian markets in the later months of the marketing year.

US Exports: August 1-May 30

Overview

Global production and consumption for 2013/14 are down. Trade is lowered on reduced import demand from China. Lower U.S. production and tightening stocks are expected to reduce exportable supplies and cause the U.S. season average farm price to rise. For 2012/13, U.S. exports are up on continued strong sales and shipments.

Prices

The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continued to be supported as China’s reserve policy tightens stocks outside of China.

Monthly Average Cotton Prices

2013/14 Trade Outlook

Major Exporters:

  • United States is revised down 500,000 bales to 11.0 million on decreased exportable supplies.
  • Australia is lowered 500,000 bales to 4.2 million on reduced exportable supplies.
  • Brazil is down 200,000 bales to 2.6 million.
  • India is raised 200,000 bales to 5.7 million on reduced domestic use.

Major Importers:

  • China is cut 1.0 million bales to 11.0 million on lower world exportable supplies.
  • Bangladesh is down 150,000 bales to 3.6 million on lower expected use.
  • Pakistan is lowered 100,000 bales to 3.0 million.

Trade Changes 2012/13

Major Exporters: Raised primarily on higher imports by China.

  • United States is up 350,000 bales to 13.6 million.
  • Australia is raised 500,000 bales to 5.7 million.
  • India is raised 200,000 bales to 7.2 million.
  • Turkmenistan is increased 150,000 bales to 1.1 million.

Major Importers:

  • China is raised 1.75 million bales to 20.0 million on government stock building.

June 2013

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