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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


12 August 2013

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - August 2013USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - August 2013


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

Argentina’s soybean oil exports have surged as production of soy-based biodiesel waned in response to diminished export prospects. Soybean oil exports topped 1.5 million tons in the second-quarter of 2013, exceeding the total volume shipped over the previous two quarters. While exports generally rise substantially in the second quarter, coinciding with the harvest, the erosion in biodiesel production over the past year has freed up additionalsuppliesfor soybean oil exports.

The decline in biodiesel production reflects the loss of European sales as import duties were raised in an ongoing trade dispute with Argentina. At its peak, Argentina’s biodiesel exports averaged 450,000 tons per quarter with about 90 percent of exports destined for the EU market.

OVERVIEW

For 2013/14, global soybean production is down as a smaller crop in the United States more than offsets gains in India. World trade is marginally higher as increased exports by Argentina and Bolivia more than offsets a lower U.S. export forecast. The season average U.S. farm price is up on smaller supplies.

For 2012/13, global soybean production is lower as a smaller crop in Argentina is partially offset by an increase in Bolivia. World trade is up, supported by larger exports from Brazil and Bolivia which offset lower exports by Argentina. The season average U.S. farm price is unchanged

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in July averaged $582/ton, down from the previous month. The drop is driven by increased farmer selling and expectations forfavorable weather.

As of the week-ending August 1, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 21.6 million tons compared to 24.2 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 37.2 million tons, compared to 38.6 million for the same period last year.

2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK

• U.S.soybean exports are cut 1.8 million tons to 37.7 million on a smaller crop; soybean meal exports are reduced 453,000 tons to 8.8 million in response to lower crush.

Argentina’ssoybean exports are raised 1.7 million tons to 13.7 million in response to lower U.S. exports and slower 4th quarter 2013 exports by Brazil. Soybean meal exports are reduced 850,000 tons to 27.8 million following a drop in production. Soybean oil exports are up 400,000 tons to 4.6 million on increased availability associated with the decline in biodiesel production.

• Brazil’s soybean oil exports are reduced 220,000 tons to 1.5 million on increased competition from Argentina.

Bolivia’s soybean exports are raised 200,000 tons to 450,000 tons in response to increased production.

• China’s rapeseed meal imports are cut 100,000 tons to 100,000 on larger domestic supplies. Rapeseed oil imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.1 million on stronger demand. August 2013

• European Union’s soybean meal imports are slashed 800,000 tons to 20.1 million on larger supplies of meals from rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Rapeseed imports are up 200,000 tons to 3.3 million on strong crush demand.

• Russia’s rapeseed exports are cut 100,000 tons to 30,000 on a reduced crop.

• Ukraine’srapeseed exports are up 200,000 tons to 2.1 million on a larger crop and strong demand from the EU.

2012/13 TRADE OUTLOOK

U.S. soybean exports are cut 408,000 tons to 35.8 million on tight supplies and slower sales. Soybean meal exports are up 363,000 tons to 9.9 million reflecting strong sales and shipments to date.

• Argentina’s soybean exports are cut 700,000 tons to 7.1 million on reduced farmer selling and weak export sales. Soybean meal exports are cut 2.0 million tons to 23.4 million on reduced crush and weak demand. Soybean oil exports are up 375,000 tons to 4.2 million on increased availability associated with the decline in biodiesel production. Sunflowerseed meal exports are cut 170,000 tons to 600,000 reflecting lower production. Sunflowerseed oil exports are down 240,000 tons to 660,000 tons on reduced crush and uncompetitive prices.

• Brazil’s soybean exports are boosted 1.3 million tons to 39.2 million on continued strong export performance. Soybean meal exports are lowered 450,000 tons to 13.1 million as crush lags in response to strong soybean exports. Soybean oil exports are reduced 230,000 tons to 1.3 million on lower production and growing competition from Argentina.

• Australia’srapeseed exports are up 200,000 tons to a record 3.1 million on strong demand from the EU.

• China’ssoybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to a record 1.4 million driven by strong exports to nearby countries during June. Soybean oil imports are raised 150,000 tons to 1.6 million on strong year-to-date trade and expected increased purchases from Argentina. Rapeseed oil imports are up 150,000 tons to 1.4 million reflecting larger purchases from the EU.

• EU soybean meal imports are slashed 2.1 million tons to 18.1 million on slower purchases mainly from Argentina. Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.4 million with large purchases from Australia. Rapeseed oil exports are up 100,000 tons to 420,000 on large sales to China, Singapore, and Norway; imports are down 100,000 tons to 250,000 on increased production.

• India’s soybean meal exports are reduced 350,000 tons to 3.9 million tons as high internal prices reduce competitiveness.

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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