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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


08 November 2013

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 8 November 2013USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 8 November 2013


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

The pace of U.S. soybean meal export sales accelerated in late September, pushing total commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to a record level by late October. This led to a rise in the U.S. export forecast for November as total commitments are 1.2 million tons ahead of last season and 1.0 million tons ahead of the previous record set in 2009. However, the high rate of sales recorded in October is unlikely to continue as the price competitiveness relative to Argentina and Brazil has evaporated. U.S. soybean meal is currently priced at a premium to Brazil and Argentine origin at $9 and $27 per ton, respectively. This compares to average discounts of $30 per ton with Brazil and $4 per ton with Argentina in the early weeks of October.

OVERVIEW

Global soybean production for 2013/14 is higher as an increase in the United States more than offsets reduced output in India, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. World trade is marginally higher. The season average U.S. farm price is down on larger supplies and declining price trend.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in October averaged at $519 per ton, lower than the previous month, pressured by the ongoing harvest and expectations of a bumper crop. The September average was $541 per ton influenced by a lower yield expectations..

As of the week-ending October 31, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 21.1 million tons compared to 16.0 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 33.2 million tons, compared to 25.9 million for the same period last year.

2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK

U.S. soybean exports are up 2.2 million tons to 39.5 million and soybean meal 680,000 tons higher to 9.3 million reflecting larger supplies and robust sales to-date.

• Argentina

o Soybean exports are cut 3.0 million tons to 9.7 million on expectations of weaker Chinese purchases and improved prospects in the product markets. Soybean meal exports are up 625,000 tons to 29.0 million on price competitiveness and reduced exportable supplies from India. Soybean oil exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million on greater demand from India.

o Sunflowerseed meal and oil exports are cut sizably on reduced crush

Brazil’s soybean exports are up 1.5 million tons to 44.0 million based on China’s demonstrated preference for Brazilian beans vis-à-vis Argentine.

• Canada

o Soybean exports are down 170,000 tons to 3.3 million in response to a smaller crop.

o Rapeseed exports are up 300,000 tons to 7.8 million supported by a record crop. November 2013

• China

o Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 2.8 million with stronger demand for crush.

o Cottonseed imports are cut 150,000 tons on slower demand.

• European Union sunflowermeal imports are down 385,000 tons to 3.6 million on reduced demand.

India’s soybean meal exports are cut 400,000 tons to 3.6 million as a smaller crop reduces crush.

Russia

o Soybean imports are cut 100,000 tons to 950,000 reflecting greater use of the domestic sunflowerseed crop, which is forecast at a record.

o Sunflowerseed meal and oil exports are up on reduced competition from Argentina.

• Turkey’s sunflowerseed imports are up 100,000 tons to 850,000 on expectations of stronger demand for crush.

• Ukraine

o Rapeseed exports are up 150,000 tons to 2.3 million on a larger crop.

o Sunflowerseed meal and oil exports are cut moderately on reduced crush.

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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