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USDA Rice Outlook


13 November 2013

USDA Rice Outlook - November 2013USDA Rice Outlook - November 2013


USDA Rice Outlook

There were several significant revisions this month to the 2013/14 U.S. rice balance sheet. First, the 2013/14 crop projection was raised 2 percent to 188.7 million cwt, a result of a higher yield. At a record 7,660 pounds per acre, the average yield is up 149 pounds from the September forecast. Yield estimates were raised this month for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The 2013/14 import forecast was lowered 0.5 million cwt to 22.0 million. These two revisions resulted in a 1-percent increase in the total U.S. supply forecast to 247.2 million cwt.

Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 was increased 1 percent to 216.0 million cwt, a result of a higher export forecast. The total U.S. rice export forecast for 2013/14 was raised 2.0 million cwt to 100.0 million cwt. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 4-percent increase in the 2013/14 ending stocks forecast to 31.2 million cwt.

The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice was increased 50 cents on both the high and low end to $14.50-$15.50 per cwt. The combined mediumand short-grain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP range was also raised 50 cents on both the high and low end to $16.80-$17.80 per cwt.

Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 473.2 million tons (milled basis), down 3.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up almost 1 percent from a year earlier. Production forecasts were lowered for Brazil, China, India, and Pakistan, but raised for Bangladesh, Colombia, South Korea, the United States, and Vietnam. The 2013/14 global rice use forecast was lowered 1.4 million tons to 473.1 million, still the highest on record. India accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global use. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 106.5 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from last year.

Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 39.2 million tons, up almost 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million above a year earlier. Export forecasts were raised for both India and The United States, but lowered for Pakistan and Vietnam. Import forecasts for 2014 were raised for Nigeria, but lowered for Colombia and Turkey.

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality, regular-milled white rice declined 6-8 percent over the past month, mostly a result of sales of Government rice stocks, lack of large new sales, and the availability of early harvested new crop rice. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have decreased since early September as U.S. supplies have increased and global competition is keen. Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market have declined over the past 2 months as well. In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have increased since early September, mostly due to recent large sales to the Philippines and China.

Domestic Outlook

U.S. 2013/14 Rice Production Forecast Raised to 188.7 Million Cwt

The 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is projected at 188.7 million cwt, up 2 percent from September’s forecast but still more than 5 percent below a year earlier. By class, the U.S. 2013/14 long-grain crop is projected at 129.0 million cwt, up 2.5 million cwt from the September forecast but almost 11 percent below a year earlier and the second smallest since 1997/98. Combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 59.7 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from September’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier.

This month’s upward revision in total U.S. rice production is solely based on a higher yield forecast. At a record 7,660 pounds per acre, the 2013/14 all-rice average yield is 149 pounds higher than last month’s forecast and 211 pounds above a year earlier. Yield estimates were raised this month for Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Mississippi, but lowered for Missouri and Texas. Planted area remains estimated at 2.49 million acres, 8 percent below a year earlier and the smallest U.S. rice plantings since 1987/88. Plantings are estimated to be lower than a year earlier in Arkansas and Missouri, but higher than last year in Louisiana and Texas and unchanged in California and Mississippi.

Yields are projected to be higher than a year earlier in all reported States except Missouri, with record yields projected for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. Arkansas’ average is estimated at 7,550 pounds per acre, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Louisiana’s 2013/14 rice yield is estimated at 7,000 pounds per acre, an increase of 9 percent from a year earlier. Mississippi’s 2013/14 yield of 7,500 pounds per acre is 4 percent above a year earlier. The average rice yield in Texas is estimated at 8,400 pounds per acre, 30 pounds higher than a year earlier. Missouri’s yield of 6,950 pounds per acre is slightly below the year-earlier record. Much of the recent yield growth in the South is due to adoption of hybrid varieties, which achieve higher yields than traditional varieties. California’s yield of 8,400 pounds per acre is 4 percent higher than the 2012/13 average yield.

Rice crops are projected smaller than a year earlier in Arkansas and Missouri. At 80.8 million cwt, Arkansas’ 2013/14 rice crop is 16 percent below a year earlier, a result of weaker plantings. Missouri’s crop is projected at 10.6 million cwt, down 14 percent from a year earlier, largely a result of smaller plantings. In contrast, Louisiana’s 2013/14 rice crop is projected at 28.8 million cwt, up 13 percent from last year because of a record yield and larger area. In Mississippi, 2013/14 production is forecast of 9.7 million cwt, 4 percent above a year earlier, the result of a record yield. The Texas 2013/14 crop of 12.1 million cwt is 8 percent larger than last year’s crop because of a higher yield and expanded area. Higher yields caused California’s 2013/14 production to increase almost 4 percent to 46.7 million cwt.

The U.S. 2013/14 rice harvest is virtually over. For the week ending November 3, 98 percent of the U.S. 2013/14 rice crop was reported harvested, slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 95 percent, despite a delayed start to planting in much of the Delta. Harvest is reported complete in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, typical for these three States. Arkansas’ harvest was reported 96 percent complete for the week ending November 3, equal to the State’s 5-year average. In Missouri, harvest was reported 97 percent complete by November 3, slightly ahead of the State’s 5- year average of 95 percent. California’s 2013/14 harvest was reported 99 percent complete for the week ending November 3, well ahead of the State’s 5-year average of 86 percent.

U.S. 2013/14 Rice Supplies Are Projected To Decline 6 Percent

Total U.S. rice supplies in 2013/14 are projected at 247.2 million cwt, 1 percent above September’s forecast but almost 6 percent smaller than a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. rice supplies since 2003/04. Long-grain total supplies are forecast at 170.4 million cwt, 1 percent above September’s forecast but 9 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain total supplies are forecast at 74.4 million cwt, up 1.6 percent from September’s forecast and 3 percent above a year earlier.

The 2013/14 carryin remains estimated at 36.4 million cwt, 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The 2013/14 long-grain carryin remains estimated at 21.9 million cwt, 10 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain carryin remains estimated at 12.2 million cwt, 17 percent below a year earlier. Stocks of brokens are not specified by class.

Imports of all rice in 2013/14 are forecast at 22.0 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the September forecast but still 5 percent above a year earlier and the second highest on record. Long-grain imports are projected at a record 19.5 million cwt, down 0.5 million cwt from the September forecast but 4 percent higher than a year earlier. The downward revision was based on August Census data and expectations regarding purchases the remainder of the market year. Thailand, India, and Pakistan typically supply the bulk of U.S. long-grain rice imports. Canada ships small amounts of rice flour to the United States. All rice processed or consumed in Canada is imported, with the U.S. the largest supplier. In some years, Vietnam will ship brokens to the U.S.

Combined medium- and short-grain imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, almost 8 percent above a year earlier. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. rice imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Arborio rice from Italy accounts for much of the remainder of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice.

U.S. 2013/14 Export Forecast Raised to 100.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2013/14 is projected at 216.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from September’s forecast but still 4 percent below a year earlier. Exports account for all of this month’s upward revision in total use. Long-grain total use is projected at 152.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from September’s forecast but 8 percent below a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain use remains projected at 64.0 million cwt, almost 7 percent above a year earlier.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2013/14 remains projected at 116.0 million cwt, 2 percent less than a year earlier. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 84.0 million cwt, 6 percent below a year earlier. Combined  medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 32.0 million cwt, 11 percent more than a year earlier.

Total exports in 2013/14 are projected at 100.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the September forecast but 7 percent below a year earlier. The upward revision was primarily based on larger supplies, sales and shipment data through October, and expectations regarding shipments the remainder of the year. The year-to-year expected decline is based on smaller U.S. supplies and a larger price difference over Asian exporters.

Long-grain exports are projected at 68.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the September forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier. This month’s upward revision was partly based on stronger than expected sales to the Middle East. In 2013/14, the United States is likely to face greater competition in the Western Hemisphere from lower priced Asian suppliers, although the region is expected to remain the largest market for U.S. rice. Combined medium- and short-grain exports remain projected at 32.0 million cwt, 3 percent above a year earlier. Northeast Asia is the largest market for U.S. medium- and short-grain exports, with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan accounting for nearly all U.S. sales to this region, with purchases the result of annual WTO commitments. The Middle East and North Africa account for most of the remaining U.S. medium- and short-grain exports.

By type, rough-rice exports remain projected at 35.0 million cwt, up 0.8 million cwt from a year earlier. Latin America is expected to remain the top market for U.S. rough-rice exports, with Southern long-grain accounting for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to the region. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 65.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from September’s forecast but 11 percent below a year earlier. The Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to account for the bulk of the decline in U.S. milled-rice exports in 2013/14.

Through October 31, data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report shows combined U.S. commercial shipments and outstanding sales 13 percent behind a year earlier. Except for U.S. milled and brown medium- and short-grain exports, total commitments are behind a year earlier for all classes of U.S. rice exports. By market, combined shipments and outstanding sales to the Western Hemisphere and Sub-Saharan Africa are well behind a year earlier. A delayed harvest in the Delta and a large price difference over Asian competitors contributed to a slow pace of exports of long-grain rice early in the market year.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2013/14 are projected at 31.2 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the September forecast but 15 percent below a year earlier. These are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2008/09. The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 14.4 percent, down from 16.2 percent in 2012/13.

By class, the 2013/14 U.S. long-grain carryout remains projected at 18.4 million cwt, 16 percent smaller than a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 12.1 percent, down from 13.2 percent a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 10.4 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the September forecast but 15 percent below a year earlier. The medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 16.2 percent, down from 20.4 percent in 2012/13 and the lowest since 2008/09.

U.S. 2013/14 Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised for Both Classes of Rice

The 2013/14 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice is forecast at $14.50-$15.50 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low end from the previous forecast. This compares with $14.40 per cwt SAFP a year earlier. On an annual basis, the impact of tighter U.S. supplies is expected to more than offset the effects of larger exportable supplies in Asia. The combined medium- and shortgrain 2013/14 U.S. SAFP is forecast at $16.80-$17.80 per cwt, also up 50 cents on both the high and low ends from the previous forecast. This compares with a 2012/13 SAFP for medium- and short-grain of $16.70 per cwt. The upward revisions for both classes of rice were based on reported cash prices and sales through September and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the marketing year.

In late October, NASS reported a mid-October U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.60 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised September estimate. The October long-grain price is the highest since January 2009. The September price was lowered 60 cents to $15.30 per cwt. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-October NASS price was reported at $18.80 per cwt, up 70 cents from the revised September price and the highest since August 2011. The September price was lowered $1.00 from the midmonth estimate to $18.10 per cwt.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2013/14 Lowered for Brazil, China, India, and Pakistan

Global rice production for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 473.2 million tons (milled basis), down 3.6 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up almost 1 percent from a year earlier. This month’s downward revision in global production was largely due to a smaller area forecast, with India accounting for most of the reduction.

The bumper global crop is the result of expanded area in 2013/14. At a record 160.3 million hectares, global rice area in 2013/14 is up 2.9 million hectares from a year earlier. Burma, Cambodia, China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand account for most of the year-to-year area increase. Much of this area expansion is driven by higher government support prices. The average global yield, forecast at 4.40 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), is slightly below the 2012/13 record. The yield decline is partly due to area shifts by country as well as adverse weather in China, the world’s largest rice-producing country.

There were several significant downward revisions to 2013/14 crop forecasts this month, mostly in Asia and South America. First, India’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 3.0 million tons to 105.0 million tons based on a smaller area forecast recommended by the U.S. Agricultural Office in New Delhi and on damage from Cyclone Phailin that struck eastern India. The crop is still slightly larger than a year earlier and one of the largest on record.

China’s 2013/14 crop was lowered 500,000 tons to 141.5 million based on drought and high temperatures in July and August that adversely impacted the late-season rice crop in southern China and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Beijing. Production is 1.5 million tons below the year-earlier record and the first decline since 2003/04. China’s 2013/14 rice area estimate was lowered 200,000 hectares to 30.4 million hectares because of smaller late-season rice planting in parts of the south caused by drought and high temperatures in late summer. Elsewhere in Asia, Pakistan’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 400,000 tons to 6.0 million tons based on a weaker yield caused by floods. This is the fourth consecutive year of a flood-damaged crop for Pakistan.

In South America, Brazil’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 8.2 million tons based on Government data indicating a smaller area estimate and slightly weaker yields. Argentina’s 2013/14 crop was lowered 65,000 tons to 975,000 tons based on smaller area and a reduced yield that were recommended by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Buenos Aires. Both Argentina and Brazil are midlevel exporters. Chile’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 5,000 tons to 81,000 tons based on slightly lower area.

In other regions, Australia’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 680,000 tons based on lower than expected irrigation capacity and some reduced irrigation allocations. In addition, higher water prices are predicted later in the season. The 2013/14 Australian area forecast was lowered, while the yield was slightly raised. Australia is a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice. Nigeria’s 2013/14 production forecast was lowered 328,000 tons to 2.77 million tons based on much lower yield reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Lagos. Nigeria is one of the largest rice importing countries in the world. In addition, there were smaller production revisions this month for several other Sub-Saharan African countries largely based on information from U.S. Agricultural Offices in the region, FAO/UN data, and analysis of the weather.

Although Cambodia received substantial flooding in October that adversely impacted several hundred thousand hectares of its 2013/14 main-season rice crop, higher yields and larger area are expected for the upcoming dry season crop that has not been impacted by the flooding. The larger dry-season crop is expected to offset a smaller main-season crop. In addition, impacts from the massive Typhoon Haiyan that struck the central Philippines on November 8 occurred too late to be included in this month’s supply and use analysis. USDA is closely monitoring damage from this record storm and this analysis will be included in the December WASDE projections.

These reductions were partially offset by several upward revisions, mostly in South Asia and Latin America. First, Sri Lanka’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 290,000 tons to a near-record 3.05 million tons based on a much higher Yala crop yield that was the result of favorable weather. Second, Bangladesh’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 200,000 tons to a record 34.40 million tons based on information from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Dhaka indicating higher planted area of the Aman rice crop (planted in July and August and harvested in November and December), which benefited from the early and long-lasting monsoon rainfall. The monsoon helped farmers continue planting until the end of September on an estimated 150,000 hectares more land than was planted the previous year.

Also in Asia, South Korea’s 2013/14 crop projection was increased 72,000 tons to 4.24 million tons based a higher yield reported by the government that resulted from favorable weather during the critical filling stages in September. Production is up 6 percent from a year earlier. In addition, Vietnam’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 30,000 tons to 27.7 million tons based on a slightly higher area forecast. The crop is unchanged from the year-earlier record.

In South America, Colombia’s 2013/14 production forecast was raised 180,000 tons to 1.36 million tons based on a much higher yield resulting from favorable weather conditions. Despite the upward revision, area, yield, and production remain well below levels achieved 5 years ago. Guyana’s 2013/14 production forecast was increased 28,000 tons to a record 470,000 tons based on record area and a slightly higher yield. There were two revisions in North America this month. First, the U.S. 2013/14 crop forecast was raised 117,000 tons to 6.01 million tons based on a higher yield. Second, Mexico’s 2013/14 crop forecast was raised 7,000 tons to 129,000 tons based a slightly higher yield reported by SAGARPA. Finally, Turkey’s 2013/14 production forecast was increased 10,000 tons to 500,000 tons based on a higher yield reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Ankara.

Global rice production in 2012/13 is estimated at 469.0 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month’s estimate but almost 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Three 2012/13 production forecasts were lowered this month, one in South Asia and two in South America. First, Pakistan’s crop estimate was lowered 200,000 tons to 5.4 million based on a lower yield caused by greater than estimated flood damage. In South America, Argentina’s 2012/13 production estimate was lowered 104,000 tons to 910,000 tons based on a smaller area reported by the Government. In addition, Brazil’s 2012/13 production estimate was reduced 75,000 tons to 7.99 million tons due to a lower yield.

These downward revisions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Vietnam’s 2012/13 crop estimate was raised 325,000 tons to 27.7 million tons based a higher area estimate. The upward revision in production is due to an unexpected expansion of planted area of the autumn and winter rice crops in the Mekong River Delta. Both total area and production are the highest on record. Second, Colombia’s 2012/13 production estimate was raised 156,000 tons to 1.33 million tons based on a higher yield as recommended by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bogota. Finally, Mexico’s 2012/13 crop estimate was raised 3,000 tons to 131,000 based on a higher yield reported by the Government.

Global rice use (including a residual component) for 2013/14 is projected at a record 473.1 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from the previous forecast but up more than 1 percent from a year earlier. India accounts for most of the downward revision in the 2013/14 global rice domestic disappearance forecast. Downward revisions were partially offset by a higher domestic disappearance forecast for Nigeria. On an annual basis, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam account for most of the projected increase in global consumption in 2013/14. In contrast, consumption (including a residual component) is projected to decline in 2013/14 in Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States. Consumption has declined for several decades in both Japan and South Korea due to diet diversification. North Korea faces food deficit problems.

Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 106.5 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from the previous forecast but nearly unchanged from last year. These are the largest global ending stocks since 2001/02. China, India, and Pakistan account for the bulk of this month’s downward revision in global ending stocks, largely a result of weaker crop forecasts. On a year-to-year basis, Thailand is projected to carry higher ending stocks in 2013/14, estimated at a record 15.5 million tons, while China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Vietnam are projected to have smaller ending stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2013/14 is calculated at 22.5 percent, down slightly from a year earlier.

Export Forecasts for 2014 Raised for India and the United States, Lowered for Vietnam

Total calendar year 2014 global rice trade is forecast at a record 39.2 million tons, up almost 0.2 million tons from the previous forecast and 0.7 million tons above this year. Global trade in 2014 will mainly be driven by strong shipments to China, Iran, Iraq, and West Africa.

There were two upward revisions in the 2014 export forecast this month. First, India’s 2014 export forecast was raised 700,000 tons to 10.0 million tons based on stronger demand from Nigeria. Second, the 2014 U.S. export forecast was increased 50,000 tons to 3.2 million tons based on larger supplies.

These upward revisions were partially offset by five reductions. First, Vietnam’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 300,000 tons to 7.5 million tons based on stronger expected competition from India and a weaker pace in 2013. Second, Pakistan’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 3.0 million tons based on smaller supplies. Third, Russia’s 2014 export forecast was reduced 80,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on smaller supplies and a slower pace in 2013. Fourth, Argentina’s 2014 export forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 550,000 tons based on smaller supplies and recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Buenos Aires. Finally, Turkey’s 2014 export forecast was reduced 40,000 tons to 10,000 tons due to smaller supplies and fewer imports for re-exporting.

There were several upward revisions in 2014 import forecasts this month. First, Nigeria’s 2014 import forecast was raised 600,000 tons to 3.0 million tons based on a smaller crop and stronger purchases in 2013. Second, Cote d’Ivoire’s 2014 import forecast was increased 150,000 tons to 1.25 million based on a recent faster pace of imports. Despite the upward revision, Cote d’Ivoire’s imports remain below the 2012 record of 1.4 million tons. Third, Tanzania’s 2014 import forecast was raised 60,000 tons to 200,000 tons, also based on a faster pace in 2013. Fourth, Australia’s 2014 import forecast was increased 30,000 tons to 140,000 tons based on tighter supplies caused by a smaller crop. In addition, smaller upward revisions in 2014 import forecasts were made for Gambia, Haiti, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Rwanda, and Uganda.

These upward revisions were partially offset by four reductions. First, Colombia’s 2014 import forecast was lowered 75,000 tons to 275,000 tons based on a larger crop and weaker trade in 2013. Second, Turkey’s 2014 import forecast was reduced 50,000 tons to 280,000 tons, also based on weaker imports in 2013 and a larger crop. Cameroon’s 2014 import forecast was lowered 25,000 tons to 500,000 tons and Burkina’s imports were lowered 20,000 tons to 250,000 tons. Both African revisions were based on weaker trade in 2013. The 2013 total global rice trade forecast was raised more than 0.1 million tons to 38.45 million, still 2 percent below a year earlier. There were two upward revisions in 2013 export forecasts this month. First, India’s 2013 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to a record 10.5 million tons based on a stronger than expected pace of shipments. And second, Guyana’s 2013 export forecast was raised 45,000 tons to a record 345,000 tons based a strong pace and larger supplies.

These upward revisions were partially offset by five reductions. First, Vietnam’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 7.2 million based on a slower than expected shipment pace. Second, Russia’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 90,000 tons to 120,000 tons based on a slower-than-expected shipment pace and smaller supplies. Third, Peru’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 50,000 tons based on a weak pace to date. Fourth, Turkey’s 2013 export forecast was reduced 50,000 tons to 10,000 tons based on less re-exporting of imported and processed rice. Finally, Venezuela’s 2013 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons based on pace.

There were several significant 2013 import revisions this month, mostly in Sub- Saharan Africa, with revisions typically based on shipment pace. Nigeria’s 2013 import forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 2.8 million tons; Cote d’Ivoire’s forecast was increased 150,000 tons to 1.3 million tons; Tanzania’s imports were raised 70,000 tons to 200,000 tons based on pace; and Ghana’s imports were increased 50,000 tons to 600,000 tons. Smaller upward revisions in 2013 import forecasts were made for Australia, Bolivia, Gambia, Mauritania, Mozambique, Pakistan, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone.

These upward revisions in 2013 import forecasts were partially offset by several reductions. First, Colombia’s 2013 import forecast was lowered 150,000 tons to 250,000 tons based on larger supplies and pace to date. Second, Peru’s 2013 import forecast was reduced 50,000 tons to 200,000 tons, also based on shipment pace. Third, Turkey’s import forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 250,000 tons based on pace and expectations of smaller re-exports of imported and processed rice. Smaller 2013 import reductions were made for Burkina, Cameroon, Mauritius, Reunion, and Uganda.

Export Prices for Thailand and U.S. Continue To Decline

Prices for most grades of Thailand’s higher and medium-quality, regular-milled white rice declined 6-8 percent over the past two month, mostly a result of sales of Government rice stocks, lack of large new sales, and the recent availability of early harvested new crop rice. Prices for parboiled rice have declined as well, while prices for aromatic rice have increased. Both parboiled and aromatic rice are specialty rices.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (fob vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $434 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $30 from the week ending September 9 and the lowest since January 2008. Prices for Thailand’s 5-percent brokens were quoted at $416 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $36 from the week ending September 9. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $445 per ton for the week ending November 11, down $18 from the week ending September 9. In contrast prices for Thailand’s brokens have declined as well. For the week ending November 11, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $385 per ton, down $33 from the week ending September 9. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,150 per ton for the week ending November 11, up $30 from the week ending September 9. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the USDA office in Bangkok.

In contrast, price quotes from Vietnam have increased since early September, mostly due to recent large sales to the Philippines and China. For the week ending November 5, prices for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $395 per ton, up $30 from September 9. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently just $21 per ton above quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, down from almost $90 in early September and more than $150 last spring. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have decreased slightly since early September as U.S. supplies have increased and global competition is keen. For the week ending November 5, prices for highquality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $595 per ton, down $22 from the week ending September 10. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) were quoted at $380 per ton for the week ending November 5, down $10 from the week ending September 10. Prices for California milled rice for the U.S. market have declined over the past 2 months as well. California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers was quoted at $661 per ton for the week ending November 5, down $22 from early September. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice were reported at $675 per ton for the week ending November 5, down $75 from early September. To date, Japan has been the largest buyer of U.S. medium-grain milled rice in 2013/14. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice prices, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

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