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USDA World Agricultural Production


10 February 2014

USDA World Agricultural Production - 10 February 2014USDA World Agricultural Production - 10 February 2014


USDA World Agricultural Production

USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 90.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1.1 percent from last month and up 8.0 million tons or 9.8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.8 million hectares or 6.5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.05 tons per hectare. Currently, the soybean crop condition in Rio Grande do Sul is reportedly very good. Yields are anticipated higher than last year. Soybeans are just past flowering stage, so precipitation during the next 2 weeks is crucial for pod fill. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 16 percent of the total soy production. Sources continue to report positive news from Mato Grosso. About 12 percent of Mato Grosso’s soybeans have been harvested and reports indicate early maturing soybeans are producing above-average yields. Mato Grosso is expected to produce as much as 28 percent of the total national production. Though treatment is costly, farmers are successfully controlling Asiatic soybean rust and Old World bollworm. The main concerns are excessive heat and dryness in southern Brazil (Sao Paulo, Parana, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul). (For additional information, contact Robert Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)

Argentina soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 54.0 million metric tons, down 0.9 percent from last month, but up 9.5 percent from last season. The estimated harvested area is unchanged at 20.0 million hectares, up 3.1 percent from last year. Planting is complete throughout the country, and recent rain will benefit the emergence and development of the soybean crop. The forecast yield is reduced to 2.70 tons per hectare, down 0.9 percent from last month but up 6.3 percent from last year. Crop conditions have recovered somewhat from the hot and dry conditions that prevailed during January. About 86 percent of the soybeans are in good or very good condition according to the Ministry of Agriculture, but rain arrived late in western and southern areas of Buenos Aires, which could reduce the potential yield of second-crop soybeans in this region. (For additional information, contact Denise McWilliams, PhD., at 202- 720-0107.)

USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat production at 5.30 million tons, up 0.55 million or 12 percent from last month and up 2.85 million tons or 21 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.2 million hectares, no change from last month and up 0.3 million hectares or 16 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.41 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), up from 2.16 MT/Ha last month and 2.32 MT/Ha last year. Early in the season, a cold snap damaged the crop in Parana and yields were down as expected. Parana represents nearly 40 percent of the national total production. Weather conditions were favorable for the crop in Rio Grande do Sul. Similar to Parana, Rio Grande do Sul also produces nearly 40 percent of the total production, and, this year’s higher-than-expected yields offset the losses in Parana. (For additional information, contact Robert Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)

Australia Cotton: Estimated Production Reduced Due to Dryness

The Australia 2013/14 cotton crop is forecast at 4.1 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month and down 0.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.415 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.011 million hectares or 2.6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2151 kilograms per hectare, 8.1 percent below the 5-year average. The decrease in estimated production is attributed to persistently hot and dry conditions across the main cotton producing regions. Temperatures have been well above average with several areas experiencing record heat. The recent spell of exceptionally hot, dry weather has taken a toll on water reserves. Irrigated crops with full water allocations have been developingwell and some of the bigger farms have reported excellent plant growth. For those irrigated crops receiving only partial water allocations this season, will likely result in lower yields. Overall output from dryland areas will account for a negligible proportion of the 2013/14 crop. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Argentina Corn: Unfavorable Heat During the Reproductive Stage

The 2013/14 Argentine corn crop is forecast at 24.0 million metric tons, down 4.0 percent from last month and down 9.4 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, a drop of 2.9 percent from last month and 18 percent less than last year. Yield is forecast at 7.27 tons per hectare, down 1.1 percent from last month but up 9.8 percent from last year. Eleven days of very high temperatures with little or no rain in mid-December followed by hot and dry conditions throughout much of January have affected most of the Argentina’s early-planted corn. Much of this early corn was just going into flowering during the heat stress conditions, which will likely have a considerable effect on potential yield. Dryness caused additional stress for corn in southern Cordoba, La Pampa, and the western and central-south regions of Buenos Aires.

Over 50 percent of the corn in Argentina this year was planted later than usual due to dry conditions early in the season. This later-planted corn reportedly helps to stabilize overall corn yield since the crop does not flower during the most intense heat of the summer. The late-corn, however, is harvested later – from June to August – and at a higher moisture content, which complicates harvest and storage. (For additional information, contact Denise McWilliams, PhD., at 202-720-0107.)

Ukraine Corn: Reported Harvest Shatters Previous Record

USDA forecasts Ukraine corn production for 2013/14 at a record 30.9 million tons, up 0.9 million or 3.0 percent from last month, up 10.0 million or 48 percent from last year, and 8.1 million above the previous record set in 2011/12. Harvested area is estimated at a record 4.8 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last year. Generally favorable weather throughout the growing season combined with continued growth in the use of hybrid seed boosted yield to an estimated 6.40 tons per hectare, up 34 percent from last year and nearly matching the record yield of 6.44 tons per hectare achieved two years ago. The rapid growth in the importation and use of hybrid corn seed began around 2003, and corn yield has nearly doubled over the past 10 years. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

 

 

 

 

Algeria Wheat: Ministry of Agriculture Released Revised Estimates

Algeria wheat production for 2013/14 is estimated at 3.3 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month and down 0.1 million from last year, but up 0.45 million from the 5 year average. Area is estimated at 1.725 million hectares, down 0.275 million or 14 percent from both last month and last year. Yield is estimated at 1.91 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), against last month’s 1.80 MT/Ha, last year’s 1.70 MT/Ha, and the 5 year average of 1.47 t/ha. The month-to-month changes are based on revised data from the Algerian Ministry of Agriculture and reflect the impact of drought during the growing season. The 2013/14 wheat crop was harvested in June 2013. Algeria is one of the world’s largest net importers of grains, even in years with bumper crops. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

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