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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


11 June 2014

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 11 June 2014USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 11 June 2014


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

This month, Argentina’s soybean meal consumption is raised to better reflect the amount of meal incorporated in compound mixed feed. Soybean meal is a significant protein component depending on the use. The incorporation boosts soybean meal use and lowers stocks.

Argentine trade statistics show exports of mixed feed have nearly tripled in just five years to 1.4 million tons in 2012/13. Growth in mixed feed exports had been concentrated in regional markets. However, in recent years, exports have expanded to Southeast Asia, the EU, New Zealand, and North Africa.

OVERVIEW

For 2014/15, global soybean production is up slightly with a larger crop in the EU. Global trade remains unchanged. Global trade for soybean meal is higher with stronger demand for Mexico and the Philippines, while lower for oil. The season average U.S. farm price is unchanged.

For 2013/14, global soybean production is unchanged. World trade is higher with larger exports by Brazil and the United States and stronger demand in Brazil, the EU, and Russia. Global soybean meal and oil trade is up slightly with greater U.S. exports. The season average U.S. farm price remains unchanged.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in May averaged $581 per ton, the highest since July 2013. Price strength is attributed to continued foreign demand, robust crush, and tightening supplies.

As of the week-ending May 29, U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 27.6 million tons compared to 21.2 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 45.0 million tons, compared to 36.6 million for the same period last year.

2014/15 TRADE OUTLOOK

• Brazil’s soybean imports are up 350,000 tons to 500,000 on expectations that trade with Paraguay will continue.

• Mexico’s soybean meal imports are up 100,000 to 1.4 million on stable growth.

• Philippines’s soybean meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.3 million reflecting U.S. sales to date.

2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK

• U.S. soybean meal exports are up 360,000 tons to a record 10.4 million on sales and shipments to date.

• Argentina’s soybean exports are cut 500,000 tons to 8.5 million on an expected slower pace of shipments. June 2014

• Brazil’s soybean exports are up 1.0 million tons to 45.5 million on stronger demand in the EU, Russia, and Turkey. Soybean imports are raised 400,000 tons to 550,000 reflecting shipments from Paraguay.

• China’s soybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.2 million on trade to date.

• European Union

o Soybean imports are boosted 150,000 tons to 12.5 million on trade to date.

o Soybean meal imports are down 200,000 tons to 18.7 million, and exports are cut 250,000 tons to 350,000 on current trade trends.

• India’s soybean meal exports are down 250,000 tons to 3.3 million as lower production and growing domestic use reduce exportable supplies.

• Russia o Soybean imports are up 130,000 tons to 1.3 million on stronger crush demand.

o Sunflowerseed meal exports are up 100,000 to 1.6 million on stronger exports in recent months.

• Philippines’s soybean meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 2.2 million on strong purchases from the United States.

• Turkey’s sunflowerseed imports are cut 100,000 tons to 750,000 on reduced exports from its major suppliers, Russia and Ukraine.

• Ukraine

o Soybean exports are cut 150,000 tons to 1.6 million on smaller shipments in March.

o Sunflowerseed meal exports are cut 100,000 tons to 3.9 million on a slower pace to date.

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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