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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


19 June 2014

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 19 June 2014Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 19 June 2014


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Summary of key issues

  • During the past week, rainfall was recorded in eastern Australia, southern Western Australia, coastal South Australia and Tasmania.

  • Maximum temperatures were average to below average across the entire continent during the past week.

  • While there has been significant warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past few months, indicating an El Niño climate pattern is developing, there has been a limited atmospheric response.

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be limited to southern regions of the continent and across central Western Australia.

  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin have increased by 129 gigalitres this week and are at 56 per cent of total capacity.

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$313 a tonne in the week ending 17 June 2014, compared with US$318 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $295 a tonne in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 13 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 330 cents a kilogram in the week ending 13 June 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 366 cents a kilogram and rose by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 371 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed in the week ending 13 June 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 577 cents a kilogram and by around 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 589 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by around 3 per cent in South Australia to average 570 cents a kilogram. In Victoria, the indicator price was largely unchanged at an average of 584 cents a kilogram.

Climate

Notable events

  • During the past week, rainfall was recorded in eastern Australia, southern Western Australia, coastal South Australia and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 15 millimetres was recorded across a broad band extending from central Queensland through to eastern Victoria. For a number of regions across northern New South Wales and Queensland which have experienced long-term (greater than 12-month) rainfall deficiencies, this is the largest recorded total since March 2014.

  • Maximum temperatures were mainly below average across Australia during the past week, with a large area in central and northern Western Australia recording maximum temperatures up to 4 degrees Celsius below average. Minimum temperatures were below average across most of Western Australia, with regions on the coast near Perth, Geraldton, Carnarvon and Wyndham recording minimum temperatures between 4 to 6 degrees Celsius below average.

  • While, large areas in western New South Wales and Queensland have recorded some useful rainfall totals during June, these events have been followed by frost across wide areas. This combination of rain and frost can lead to a reduction in feed quality and quantity and may affect livestock condition in some regions. Livestock producers are being advised to consider the provision of additional feed supplements, monitoring pasture quality or adjusting their stocking rates in affected areas to minimise the loss in livestock condition.

  • Significant warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past few months indicate that an El Niño climate pattern is developing, although warming has levelled off in the recent weeks due to limited atmospheric response. Despite the easing of some climate model outlooks, an El Niño climate pattern is still expected to develop by spring 2014 (Bureau of Meteorology ENSO ‘Wrap-up’, 17 June 2014).

  • The rainfall forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is likely to be limited to southern regions of the continent and across central Western Australia. The highest falls are likely to occur in Tasmania, with the remainder of the country not likely to record any significant rainfall during this time.

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 18 June 2014, rainfall in excess of 10 millimetres was mainly recorded in eastern Australia, southern Western Australia, coastal South Australia and Tasmania. The highest recorded rainfall total for the week was 153 millimetres at Cann River, in far eastern Victoria.

For further information go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml

Rainfall for the week ending 18 June 2014

©Commonwealth of Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Meteorology              Issued: 18/06/2014

Commodities

Production and commodities

  • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$313 a tonne in the week ending 17 June 2014, compared with US$318 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$204 a tonne for the week ending 18 June 2014, largely unchanged from the previous week.

  • The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$503 a tonne in the week ending 17 June 2014, compared with US$517 a tonne in the previous week.

  • The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US91.4 cents a pound in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, No. 11 contract) averaged US17.1 cents a pound in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • Data from Mexico’s Ministry of Agriculture indicates that, as at 14 June 2014, Mexico had crushed 53.5 million tonnes of sugar cane in the 2013–14 season (October to September). Over the same period in 2012-13, Mexican sugar production was around 14 per cent lower at 5.9 million tonnes.

  • The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1029 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 12 June 2014, around 1 per cent lower the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was around 24 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $295 a tonne in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 13 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $311 a tonne in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $307 a tonne in the week ending 18 June 2014, around 2 per cent lower than the previous week.

  • The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $480 a tonne in the week ending 16 June 2014, around 1 per cent higher than the previous week.

  • The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330 – 400 kg live weight C3) averaged 330 cents a kilogram in the week ending 13 June 2014, around 3 per cent lower than the previous week. Over the same period, young cattle prices fell by around 2 per cent in New South Wales to average 366 cents a kilogram and rose by around 2 per cent in Victoria to average 371 cents a kilogram.

  • Changes in the saleyard indicator price of lamb (18–22kg fat score 2–4) were mixed in the week ending 13 June 2014, compared with the previous week. The indicator price fell by around 3 per cent in New South Wales to average 577 cents a kilogram and by around 1 per cent in Western Australia to average 589 cents a kilogram. In contrast, the indicator price rose by around 3 per cent in South Australia to average 570 cents a kilogram. In Victoria, the indicator price was largely unchanged at an average of 584 cents a kilogram.

  • The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average price of cheddar cheese US$4381 a tonne on 17 June 2014, compared with US$4236 a tonne on 3 June 2014. Over the same period, the price of whole milk powder rose by around 2 per cent to US$3658 a tonne and the price of skim milk powder remained largely unchanged. In contrast, the price of anhydrous milk fat declined by around 4 per cent to $3898 a tonne.

  • The wholesale prices of selected fruit generally fell the week ending 14 June 2014. The wholesale prices of watermelon (seedless), strawberry and banana (cavendish) were lower than the previous week while the price of pineapple (smoothleaf) was higher.

  • Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 14 June 2014. The wholesale prices of cauliflower and bean (round, stringless) were higher than the previous week while the prices of broccoli and lettuce (iceberg) were lower.

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