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USDA Rice Outlook


15 September 2014

USDA Rice Outlook - 15 September 2014USDA Rice Outlook - 15 September 2014


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Production Forecast Lowered to 218.3 Million Cwt

The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop forecast was reduced 5 percent this month to 218.3 million cwt due to smaller area and yield estimates, with long-grain accounting for all of the downward revision. Data from the August Rice Stocks resulted in a 1.0-million-cwt reduction in the 2014/15 beginning stocks estimate to 31.8 million cwt. These revisions reduced the 2014/15 total U.S. supply forecast 4 percent to 271.1 million cwt, still 9 percent above 2013/14.

Total rice use for 2014/15 was lowered 10.0 million cwt to 233.0 million cwt, with U.S. exports reduced 7.0 million cwt to 102.0 million cwt and domestic and residual use reduced 3.0 million cwt to 131.0 million cwt. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 1.5-million cwt reduction in the U.S. ending stocks forecast to 38.1 million cwt, with long-grain accounting for all of the reduction in the ending stocks forecast.

The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) was raised 50 cents on both ends to $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, down from $15.40 in 2013/14. The combined medium- and shortgrain 2014/15 SAFP was lowered 25 cents on both ends to $17.25-$18.25, compared with a revised $18.50 in 2013/14.

Reduced crop forecasts for North Korea, South Korea, and the United States were responsible for a 0.4-million-ton decline in the 2014/15 global rice production forecast to 477.0 million tons, still the highest on record. These reductions were partially offset by higher forecasts for Australia and Guyana. Global consumption is projected at a record 484.8 million tons, 4.8 million tons higher than production. Ending stocks are projected to decline 4 percent in 2014/15 to 105.1 million tons, the first decline since 2006/07.

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from the previous forecast but 0.1 million below the revised 2014 record. Export forecasts were raised for Australia and Guyana but lowered for the United States. The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to a record 41.25 million tons, mostly due to a larger export forecast for Thailand.

Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have moved in a narrow range over the past month, despite a strong pace of sales. Price quotes from Vietnam have increased over the past month.

U.S. prices for longgrain milled rice and prices for domestic sales of medium- and short-grain milled rice have declined over the past month.

Domestic Outlook 

U.S. 2014/15 Rice Production Projected at 218.3 Million Cwt

The 2014/15 U.S. rice crop is projected at 218.3 million cwt (hundredweight, rough basis), a decrease of 10.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast, but 15 percent larger than a year earlier. Both the 2014/15 area and yield forecasts were lowered this month. Long grain production was reduced 11.1 million cwt to 158.3 million cwt, still 20 percent above a year earlier and the largest since 2010/11. In contrast, the medium- and short-grain production forecast was raised 1 percent to 60 million cwt, up 3.5 percent from a year earlier.

At 2.93 million acres, U.S. rice plantings are 4 percent below the previous estimate reported in the June Acreage report, but still 18 percent higher than a year earlier. Area estimates were lowered this month for Arkansas and California, but raised for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. The Missouri area estimate is unchanged from the previous estimate. In the South, the long-grain planted area estimate was lowered 130,000 acres from the June estimate, with Arkansas accounting for most of the downward revision. The South accounts for almost all U.S. long-grain acreage. In contrast, the 2014/15 southern medium- and short-grain planted area estimate was raised 76,000 acres from the June estimate. At 302,000 acres, 2014/15 southern medium- and short-grain plantings are more than double 2013/14 plantings. This month’s area revisions were based on updated Farm Service Agency certified acreage data.

The average yield is projected at 7,501 pounds per acre, down 59 pounds from last month’s forecast and 2.5 percent below the year earlier record. Yield forecasts were lowered this month for Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas, but raised for California. Yield forecasts for Arkansas and Mississippi are unchanged from last month. These monthly area and yield revisions resulted in reduced crop forecasts for Arkansas, California, Missouri, and Texas, with California and Arkansas accounting for the bulk of the downward revision. In contrast, crop forecasts were raised this month for Louisiana and Mississippi.

In 2014/15, rice plantings increased from a year earlier in all reported States except California where rice area dropped. Higher expected returns from rice than from competing crops and a return to production of more than 200,000 acres of rice— mostly in the Delta—not planted in 2013/14 due to excessive rain early in the season account for the area expansion in 2014/15. At 1.48 million acres, Arkansas 2014/15 rice plantings are 37 percent higher than a year earlier and the highest since the 2010/11 record of 1.79 million acres. Louisiana’s 2014/15 rice area is estimated at 465,000 acres, an 11-percent increase from a year earlier. In Mississippi, 2014/15 rice plantings are estimated at 191,000 acres, a 53 percent increase from last year. Missouri’s 2014/15 plantings are estimated at 216,000 acres, unchanged from last month, but 36 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. Texas plantings of 150,000 acres are 7 percent higher than the previous estimate and more than 3 percent above a year earlier.

In contrast to the South, California’s 2014/15 rice plantings of 433,000 acres are 62,000 acres below than the level reported in the June Acreage report and almost 24 percent below a year earlier. The State has experienced severe drought and low reservoir levels with water restrictions. These are the smallest rice plantings for California since 1992/93. Almost all of California’s rice is medium- and shortgrain rice and the State typically supplies more than 75 percent of total U.S. medium- and short-grain production.

Yields are projected lower in 2014/15 than a year earlier in all reported States except California and Texas. The Arkansas 2014/15 yield is projected at 7,500 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month but 1 percent below the year earlier record. Louisiana’s 2014/15 yield of 7,100 pounds per acre is 100 pounds below last month’s forecast and 200 pounds below a year earlier. Mississippi’s average yield of 7,000 pounds per acre is unchanged from August but 5 percent below a year earlier. The Missouri average yield is estimated at 6,400 pounds per acre, 200 pounds below the August forecast and 9 percent below a year earlier. An abnormally cool and wet spring delayed planting and slowed crop progress in much of the South this year.

At 7,800 pounds per acre, the average Texas yield is 9 percent below the August forecast but 1 percent above a year earlier. California’s 2014/15 average yield is forecast at 8,600 pounds per acre, up 200 pounds from the August forecast and more than 1 percent higher than a year earlier. The California 2014/15 yield is equal to the record yields achieved in 2004/05 and 2009/10.

Production is projected to be higher in 2014/15 in all reported States except California. Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the 28.4-million cwt projected increase in U.S. rice production in 2014/15. At 110.3 million cwt, Arkansas’ rice crop is 36 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. The bumper crop is the result of expanded area. Louisiana’s 2014/15 rice production is forecast at 32.7 million cwt, an increase of 8 percent from a year ago and the highest on record. In Mississippi, production is projected at 13.3 million cwt, up 45 percent from a year earlier, a result of a substantial area expansion. Increased plantings boosted Missouri’s rice crop 24 percent to 13.6 million cwt. At 11.6 million cwt, the Texas rice crop is up 4 percent from a year earlier, a result of increased plantings and a slightly higher yield.

In contrast, California’s 2014/15 rice production is projected to decline 23 percent from a year earlier to 36.8 million cwt, the smallest since 2001/02. The production decline is the result of a 24-percent drop in rice plantings that was caused by severe drought and low reservoir levels that resulted in water restrictions.

Progress of the 2014/15 U.S. Rice Crop Remains Behind Normal

Progress of the 2014/15 remains behind normal across the South, a result of a cold, wet spring that delayed plantings and continued cooler and wetter than normal weather in parts of the South that has slowed progress and delayed harvest. For the week ending September 7, 26 percent of the U.S. crop had been harvested, 10 percentage points behind the U.S. 5-year average. In Arkansas, just 16 percent of the crop was harvested by September 7, slightly more than half the State’s 5-year average. In nearby Mississippi, 16 percent of the crop had been harvested by September 7, well behind the State’s 5-year average of 39 percent. In Missouri, just 5 percent of the 2014/15 crop was harvested September 7, compared with a 5-year average of 14 percent. On the Gulf Coast, 76 percent of Louisiana’s 2014/15 crop was harvested by September 7, behind State’s 5-year average of 83 percent. In Texas, harvest was 82 percent complete by September 7, 10 percentage points behind the State’s 5-year average. In California, 2 percent of the crop was harvested by September 7, even with the State’s 5-year average.

U.S. Rice Supplies in 2014/15 Are Up 9 Percent From 2013/14

Total U.S. supplies of rice in 2014/15 are projected at 271.1 million cwt, down 11.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 9 percent above a year earlier. Projections for both carryin and production were lowered from the August forecasts. In 2014/15, a much larger crop is expected to more than offset a smaller carryin and weaker imports, with total supplies the highest since the record 297.9 million cwt reported in 2010/11.

By class, long-grain supplies projected at 193.0 million cwt, down 14.1 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 11 percent larger than a year earlier. Mediumand short-grain total supplies are projected at 75.8 million cwt, an increase of 2.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Carryin and production of medium- and short-grain rice are projected to be larger in 2014/15 than a year earlier.

The all-rice beginning stocks forecast for 2014/15 is estimated at 31.8 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the August forecast and 13 percent below a year earlier. The downward revision was based on data from the August Rice Stocks. The 2014/15 long-grain carryin is estimated at 16.2 million cwt, down 3.1 million cwt from the August forecast and 26 percent smaller than a year earlier. The mediumand short-grain carryin is estimated 13.3 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt from the August forecast and 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks of brokens, included in the all-rice estimate, are not classified by class.

Total U.S. rice imports in 2014/15 remain projected at 21.0 million cwt, 9 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, about 2 million cwt of brokens were imported due to tight supplies of U.S. brokens. Because of the increase in millings resulting from the larger crop, the supply of U.S. brokens is expected to be larger in 2014/15. Long-grain imports remain projected at 18.5 million cwt, down 5 percent from the year-earlier record. Thailand is expected to again supply more than 70 percent of U.S. long-grain imports, shipping mostly its premium jasmine rice, an aromatic. Basmati rice from India and Pakistan accounts for much of the remaining U.S. longgrain rice imports.

Combined medium- and short-grain rice imports remain projected at 2.5 million cwt, 29 percent below a year earlier. In 2013/14, the U.S. imported nearly 1.0 million cwt of broken rice kernels from Australia, a major exporter of medium- and short-grain rice. The United States does not typically import brokens from Australia. Specialty rice from Thailand accounts for the bulk of U.S. imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Italy supplies a small amount of Arborio rice to the United States each year. 

U.S. 2014/15 Export Forecast Lowered to 102.0 Million Cwt

Total use of U.S. rice in 2014/15 is projected at 233.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 7 percent larger than a year earlier. Both total domestic use (including a residual component) and exports were revised down this month, with long-grain accounting for the bulk of the downward revisions. Total long-grain use in 2014/15 is projected at 169.0 million cwt, down 9.0 million cwt from the August forecast but still 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain rice total use is projected at 64.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million from last month’s forecast but still 6 percent higher than a year earlier.

Total domestic and residual use of all rice in 2014/15 is projected at 131.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 5 percent larger than a year earlier. The downward revision is primarily based on smaller U.S. supplies, with long-grain accounting for all of the downward revision. Long-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 99.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 4 percent above a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is forecast at 32.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast and 8 percent larger than a year earlier.

Total exports in 2014/15 are projected at 102.0 million cwt, down 7.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 10 percent larger than a year earlier. The monthly revision is primarily based on smaller U.S. supplies. On an annual basis, U.S. rice is expected to be more price competitive than it was in 2013/14, likely boosting U.S. sales to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, two key markets where the United States competes with Asian exporters.

U.S. long-grain exports are projected at 70.0 million cwt, down 5.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 13 percent above a year earlier. U.S. long-grain prices are projected to be lower in 2014/15 and to carry a smaller price difference over Asian competitors, major factors driving the projected increase in U.S. longgrain exports. The Western Hemisphere is the largest export market for U.S. longgrain rice, accounting for two-thirds of U.S. long-grain shipments. The Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are the next largest markets for U.S. long-grain rice and are expected to account for most of the increase in shipments in 2014/15.

Combined medium- and short-grain U.S. exports in 2014/15 are projected at 32.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 4 percent larger than a year earlier. This month’s downward revision is largely based on larger supplies in Australia, a major competitor in the global medium- and short-grain market. Northeast Asia and the Middle East (including North Africa) account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports. Australia is typically the major supplier of rice to Oceania.

By type, U.S. rough-rice exports remain projected at 34.0 million cwt, up 19 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with Latin America the top regional market and Mexico and Central America the largest buyers. Southern long-grain accounts for nearly all of the U.S. rough-rice shipments to Latin America. Turkey and Libya account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rough-rice exports, taking mostly California rice. 

Combined milled- and brown-rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 68.0 million cwt, down 7.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still 6 percent larger than a year earlier. Northeast Asia, the Middle East, Haiti, Canada, and Sub- Saharan Africa are the largest export markets for U.S. milled-rice exports. The expected increase in 2014/15 is based on a much smaller U.S. price difference over Asian competitors and larger U.S. supplies.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice in 2014/15 are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 20 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 16.4 percent, up from 14.6 percent in 2013/14. By class, the 2014/15 U.S. long-grain carryout is projected at 24.0 million cwt, 5.1 million cwt below last month’s forecast but 48 percent larger than a year earlier.The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 14.2 percent, up from 10.3 percent in 2013/14.

The medium- and short-grain carryout is projected at 11.8 million cwt, up 3.7 million cwt from last month’s forecast but still 11 percent smaller than a year earlier. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 18.5 percent, down from 22.0 percent in 2013/14.

There were several revisions to the 2013/14 balance sheet based mostly on data from the August Rice Stocks as well as revisions due to market year trade data. On the supply side, total 2014/15 imports were raised 0.1 million cwt to 23.1 million, with both long-grain and medium- and short-grain imports raised fractionally. On the use side, total 2013/14 exports were revised down 0.8 million cwt to 92.7 million cwt, with long-grain lowered 1.2 million cwt to 61.8 million cwt and medium- and short-grain raised 0.4 million to 30.9 million cwt.

Data from the August Rice Stocks indicate August 1, 2014 total U.S. rice stocks at 31.8 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast. By class, longgrain stocks were lowered 3.1 million cwt to 16.2 million cwt, 16 percent below a year earlier. In contrast, combined medium- and short-grain stocks on August 1 were raised 2.1 million cwt to 13.3 million cwt, 19 percent above a year earlier. August 1 stocks of brokens, not classified by class, are estimated at 2.3 million cwt.

The trade and stocks revisions resulted in an increase in the 2013/14 domestic and residual forecast to 124.9 million cwt, up 1.9 million from the August forecast. The long-grain domestic and residual use forecast was raised 4.3 million cwt while the medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use forecast was lowered 2.5 million cwt.

U.S. 2014/15 Long-grain Season-Average Farm Price Forecast Raised

The 2014/15 season-average farm price (SAFP) range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, up 50 cents on both the high and low end of the previous forecast, but still well below the $15.40 per cwt forecast for 2013/14 and the lowest since 2010/11. The expected price decline in 2014/15 is primarily based on larger U.S. supplies.

The combined medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. SAFP range is projected at $17.25-$18.25 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low ends from last month’s forecast. This compares with a revised $18.50 per cwt SAFP for 2013/14. The downward revision in the 2014/15 medium- and short-grain SAFP is based on larger U.S. and Australian supplies and a higher share of the U.S. medium- and short-grain crop coming from the South, which typically sells at lower prices than California medium- and short-grain rice. These same factors are also behind the year-to-year decline in U.S. medium- and short-grain prices.

The 2014/15 all-rice SAFP was raised 10 cents on both ends to $13.90-$14.90 per cwt due to the higher long-grain SAFP. In August, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) revised 2013/14 monthly cash prices and marketings for all rice and by class. For medium- and short-grain rice, the monthly revisions resulted in a 70-cent increased in the 2014/15 SAFP to $18.50 per cwt. The longgrain 2013/14 SAFP remains estimated at $15.40 per cwt. The 2013/14 all rice SAFP was raised 20 cents to $16.10 per cwt.

In late August, NASS reported a mid-August U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $15.30 per cwt, down 10 cents from the revised July estimate and 30 cents below the June estimate. The July price was lowered 60 cents to $15.40 from a preliminary $16.00. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-August NASS price was reported at $19.90 per cwt, up 30 cents from the revised July price. The July price of $19.60 per cwt is 40 cents above the preliminary price of $19.20 per cwt.

International Outlook

Production Forecasts for 2014/15 Lowered for United States and North and South Korea

Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 477.0 million tons (milled basis), down 0.4 million tons from last month’s forecast but still up 0.9 million tons from 2013/14 and the largest crop on record. The record global crop in 2014/15 is the result of expanded area. At a record 161.0 million hectares, global rice area in 2014/15 is up fractionally from a year earlier. Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for most of the projected area increase. The average global yield is forecast at 4.42 tons per hectare (on a rough-rice basis), nearly unchanged from 2013/14 but slightly below the 2012/13 record of 4.45 tons.

The largest downward production revision this month was for the United States. The U.S. 2014/15 crop forecast was lowered 5 percent to 6.98 million tons based on smaller area and weaker yield reported by USDA/NASS. Production forecasts were lowered for both North and South Korea due to adverse weather. North Korea’s 2014/15 production forecast was lowered 100,000 tons to 1.7 million tons based on drought early in the season and then a shorter than normal rainy season. The dryness resulted in a lower yield forecast. In South Korea, the 2014/15 production forecast was reduced 100,000 tons to 4.05 million tons based on a weaker yield caused by a cooler and wetter than normal August. The only other downward revision for 2014/15 was a 19,000-ton decrease in the European Union production forecast to 1.95 million tons due to a slightly small crop in Spain.

These reductions were partially offset by three upward revisions. First, Australia’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 144,000 tons to 648,000 tons based on a 20,000- hectare increase in area to 90,000 hectares reported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on September 9. The area is up 18 percent from a year earlier largely due to favorable expected returns to rice production and adequate irrigation water. Second, Guyana’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 34,000 tons to 570,000 tons based on Government of Guyana data indicating higher area and yield. Both production and area are record high. Guyana has sharply increased rice production in recent years. Finally, Cuba’s 2014/15 crop forecast was raised 10,000 tons to 440,000 tons based on a higher yield.

The only significant production revision for 2013/14 was a 0.25 million ton increase in India’s production to a record 106.54 million tons. The revision was based on the Government of India’s recently released Fourth Advance Estimate.

Global rice consumption and residual use in 2014/15 is projected at a record 481.8 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month’s forecast but still 1 percent larger than a year earlier. Consumption (including the residual) exceeds production in 2014/15 by 4.8 million tons. Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States account for the bulk of the projected increase in global consumption and residual use in 2014/15.

Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 105.1 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 4 percent below a year earlier and the first decline since 2006/07. Thailand accounts for most of this month’s downward revision in the 2014/15 global ending stocks forecast. The global stocks-to-use ratio for 2014/15 is calculated at 21.8 percent, down from 23.1 percent a year earlier.

U.S. 2014 and 2015 Rice Export Forecasts Lowered

Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 41.2 million tons, up fractionally from the previous forecast but 0.1 million below the revised 2014 record. There were no country-specific import revisions this month for 2014 or 2015.

There were three 2015 export revisions this month. First, the U.S. 2015 export forecast was lowered 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons based on a smaller supply forecast. Despite the downward revision, U.S. exports are still projected to be up 10 percent from 2014, mostly due to a larger harvest in 2014/15. Second, Australia’s 2015 export forecast was raised 75,000 tons to 475,000 tons based on a larger 2014/15 crop. Third, Guyana’s 2015 export forecast was raised 50,000 tons to 450,000 tons based on a larger crop. Guyana exports the bulk of its rice crop. Guyana’s exports in 2014 and 2015 are the highest on record.

On an annual basis, Thailand is projected to replace India as the largest rice exporter, shipping 10.0 million tons, an increase of 5 percent from 2014 and the highest since the record 10.6 million was shipped in 2011. The projected increase for Thailand in 2015 is based on more competitive prices and abundant supplies. In contrast, India’s projected exports of 8.7 million tons in 2015 are 13 percent below this year, a result of a smaller crop and higher domestic use. The number three exporter in 2015 is Vietnam, projected to ship 6.7 million tons of rice in 2015, a 3- percent increase from a year earlier. Vietnam’s supplies in 2014/15 are projected to be the highest on record, while little, if any, growth in consumption is expected. Pakistan’s exports are projected to remain unchanged from this year’s near-record 3.9 million tons. These four countries plus the United States account for about 85 percent of global rice exports.

The 2014 global trade forecast was raised 0.5 million tons to 41.25 million tons, 1.9 million tons above a year earlier and the highest on record. The strong pace of trade is largely due to near-record imports by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large supplies of exportable rice in Asia.

There were three 2014 export revisions this month. First, Thailand’s 2014 export forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 9.5 million tons based on recommendations from the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok. The Government of Thailand is holding near-record levels of stocks. Second, Guyana’s 2014 export forecast was increased 50,000 tons to a record 450,000 tons largely based on a larger crop. Finally, the U.S. 2014 export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.1 million tons based on smaller supplies.

Thailand’s Prices Move in Narrow Range; U.S. Long-grain Prices Continue Dropping

Prices for all grades of Thailand’s regular-milled white rice have moved in a narrow range over the past month, despite a rapid pace of sales and upward revision in in its 2014 export forecast. On the price-bullish side, Government held supplies of rice remain extremely large, as sales of these stocks to exporters have been smaller and slower than expected, which has temporarily tightened the available supply situation. On the price-bearish side, supplies from the final 2013/14 dry-season crop are available for export and the harvest of the 2014/15 main crop should begin in a couple of months.

Prices for Thailand's high-quality, 100-percent Grade B (free-on-board (fob) vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export were quoted at $447 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $1 from the week ending August 11.Prices for Thailand’s 5- percent brokens were quoted at $438 per ton for the week ending September 9, up $9 from the week ending August 11. Prices for Thailand's 5-percent parboiled rice were quoted at $435 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $6 from the week ending August 11.

Prices for Thailand’s brokens are down 3 percent from the week ending August 11. For the week ending September 9, prices for Thailand’s A-1 Super 100-percent brokens were quoted at $333 per ton, down $10 from the week ending August 11. Price quotes for Thailand’s premium jasmine rice, an aromatic variety, were quoted at $1,065 per ton for the week ending September 9, up $60 from the week ending August 11. All price quotes for Thailand’s rice are from the Weekly Rice Price Update, reported by the U.S. Agricultural Office in Bangkok.

Price quotes from Vietnam have increased over the past month. For the week ending September 10, prices for Vietnam’s double-water-polished milled-rice with 5-percent brokens were quoted at $450 per ton, up $10 from the week ending August 12. Thailand’s price quotes for 5-percent brokens are currently $12 per ton below quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent double-water-polished milled rice, making Thailand a competitive seller. Thailand’s prices typically exceed prices for similar grades of rice from Vietnam by around $50 per ton.

U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice have declined over the past month. For the week ending September 9, prices for high-quality U.S. Southern long-grain rice (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf port) were quoted at $540 per ton, down $11 from the week ending August 12. The U.S. price difference (adjusted to reflect an fob vessel location) over Thailand’s 100-percent grade B is $108 per ton, down $10 from a month earlier and the lowest since July 2013. Prices for U.S. long-grain rough-rice (bulk, fob vessel, New Orleans) remain quoted at $325 per ton for the week ending September 9, unchanged from a month earlier.

Prices for California’s package-quality medium-grain rice (bulk) for domestic sales to processors and repackagers are quoted at $915 per ton for the week ending September 9, down $33 from the week ending August 12. Export prices (sacked, port of Oakland) for California milled rice remain quoted at $1,130 per ton, unchanged since early July. Sales of California rice have been very small as the new-crop harvest has just begun. Sales are expected to soon increase as the bulk of the large annual Northeast Asia sales typically begin in late September. Price quotes for Vietnam, U.S. long- and medium-grain milled-rice, and U.S. rough-rice export prices are from the weekly Creed Rice Market Report.

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