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USDA GAIN: Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed


08 October 2014

USDA GAIN: Brazil Sugar Annual 2014USDA GAIN: Brazil Sugar Annual 2014

The Brazilian MY 2014/15 sugarcane crop is estimated at 619 mmt, down 5 mmt from MY 2013/14, mainly due to weather related problems in the center-southern producing region. Approximately 45 percent of the crop should be diverted to sugar, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the previous season due to better ethanol prices. Total exports for MY 2013/14 are forecast at 24 mmt, raw value, down 1.25 percent compared to the previous estimate.
USDA GAIN Report - Oilseeds, Cotton, Sugar, Grain and Feed

Production

The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO/Sao Paulo) estimates marketing year (MY) 2014/15 Brazilian sugarcane production at 619 million metric tons (mmt), down 5 percent from the previous season (650 mmt). The Center-South (CS) region is expected to produce 565 mmt of sugarcane, a 2 percent decrease compared to the previous estimate, due to lower agricultural yields in the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais as a result of irregular weather conditions (drought).

According to< post contacts, approximately 5 to 10 million metric tons of sugarcane are likely to be left in the field, especially in the states of Goias and Mato Grosso. North-Northeastern (NNE) production for MY 2014/15 remains at 54 mmt, similar to MY 2013/14. Industrial yield for MY 2014/15 is estimated at 134.1 kg of TRS (total reducing sugars)/mt, up 3.3 kg compared to the previous figure, as a consequence of the dry weather in the states of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais.

TRS content diverted for sugar and ethanol production for MY 2014/15 is estimates at 45 and 55 percent, respectively, as a consequence of better profitability for ethanol production. ATO/Sao Paulo estimates the MY 2014/15 sugar production at 35.80 mmt, raw value, down 1 mmt compared to previous estimate. The CS states should account for 32.6 mmt, raw value, whereas the NNE output is preliminarily forecast at 3.2 mmt of sugar, raw value, similar to MY 2013/14.

No changes have been made to the MY 2014/15 ethanol production figure which is estimated at 25.5 billion liters (12.8 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol and 12.7 billion liters of hydrated ethanol). Crystal Sugar and Ethanol Indexes released by the University of Sao Paulo’s College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ) track crystal sugar, anhydrous and hydrated prices received by producers in the domestic spot market.

Consumption

Brazilian sugar consumption for MY 2014/15 remains at 11.5 mmt, raw value, up 240,000 mt from MY 2013/14 (11.26 mmt), reflecting the Brazilian population growth and a continued expansion in the food processing sector.

Exports

ATO/Sao Paulo forecasts sugar exports for MY 2014/15 at 24 mmt, raw value, down 1.25 mmt from previous estimated due to lower expected sugar production, therefore lower expected exportable supply. Raw sugar should account for 18.95 mmt, raw value, whereas the remainder represents exports of refined sugar. The following tables show Brazilian sugar exports by destination for MY 2013/14 and MY 2014/15 (May-August), as reported by the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX).

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