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USDA Wheat Outlook


15 December 2014

USDA Wheat Outlook December 2014 USDA Wheat Outlook December 2014


USDA Wheat Outlook

Higher Imports Raise 2014/15 Ending Stocks

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels this month, with higher projected imports. Increased production and higher imports from Canada are expected to add to U.S. wheat supplies. The entire import increase is for durum. Domestic use projections and wheat exports are unchanged. However, a 15-million-bushel reduction for hard red winter exports is offset by 5-million-bushel increases for hard red spring, white, and durum. Ending stocks for all wheat are projected 10 million bushels higher with the supply increase. The projected season-average farm price range is raised 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint to $5.80 to $6.20 per bushel on prices reported to date and recent reports of higher cash and futures prices. Wheat output is projected higher for Canada and Kazakhstan. With global consumption projected to be virtually unchanged, global ending stocks are up. World wheat trade is projected higher with increased European Union, Turkish, Canadian, Iranian, Kazakh, Ukrainian and Moldovan exports. U.S. exports stay unchanged.

Domestic Outlook

2014 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Is Unchanged From November

The survey-based estimate of winter wheat production, at 1,378 million bushels, is unchanged from November, but down 165 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 32.3 million acres, down 0.3 million acres from 2013. The 2014 winter wheat yield is estimated at 42.6 bushels per acre, down 4.6 bushels from the previous year.

2014 Winter Wheat Production Estimates by Class Are Unchanged From November

Hard red winter (HRW) production is estimated at 738 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 9 million bushels from a year ago. Production for 2014 is down from 2013 as a lower yield more than offset higher harvest area. Estimated yield is 33.7 bushels per acre, down from last year because of drought conditions and an April spring freeze. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 30.5 million acres, up 0.8 million acres; 21.9 million acres, up 1.5 million acres; and 33.7 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels per acre, respectively. Soft red winter (SRW) production is estimated at 455 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 113 million bushels from last year. Production in 2014 is estimated lower than 2013 because of lower harvested area. Harvested area was lower mostly because of fewer planted acres.

The weather was very favorable for timely harvesting of 2012 row crops, leaving ample time for seeding the 2013 SRW crop. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are 8.5 million acres, down 1.5 million acres; 7.2 million acres, down 1.8 million acres; and 63.6 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels per acre, respectively. White winter wheat production for 2014 is estimated to total 184 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 43 million bushels from a year ago. The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW):

 Desert durum production in California and Arizona is estimated at 11.7 million bushels for 2014. This production is less than the 12.4-million bushels in 2013.

2014 U.S. Spring Wheat Production Is Unchanged From November

The survey-based estimate of spring wheat production, at 648 million bushels, is unchanged from November, but down 56 million bushels from 2013. Estimated 2014 harvested area is 14.1 million acres, down 1.4 million acres from 2013. The 2014 spring wheat yield is estimated at 46.0 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the previous year.

Spring Wheat Production Estimates by Class Are Unchanged From November

Hard red spring (HRS) production is estimated at 556 million bushels, are unchanged from November, but up 65 million bushels from 2013. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 12.2 million acres (up 1.3 million), 12.0 million acres, (up 1.3 million), and 46.3 bushels per acre (up 0.5 bushels). White spring production is estimated to total 39.5 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 4.0 million bushels from 2013.The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat are as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS):

Durum wheat production is estimated to total 53.1 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 4.9 million bushels from a year ago. Durum production is estimated down from 2013 with both smaller harvested area and lower yields. Estimated planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2014 from 2013 are, respectively, 1.40 million acres (unchanged), 1.34 million acres, (unchanged), and 39.7 bushels per acre (down 3.6 bushels).

Projected 2014/15 Supplies Up Slightly This Month

The 2014/15 outlook for U.S. wheat supplies is raised 10 million bushels from November to 2,795 million bushels because of higher expected durum imports due to tight U.S. durum stocks and large Canadian supplies. Total beginning stocks for 2014/15, at 590 million bushels, are unchanged from November. Projected total imports, at 180 million bushels, are up 10 million bushels from November.

Projected 2014/15 Supplies Down From 2013/14

Total supplies are down a projected 226 million bushels from 2013/14. HRS and durum supplies are projected up year to year. Projected supplies of the other classes are down. HRW supplies are down mostly because of lower carryin stocks; the combined result of sharply lower production in 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 and strong 2013/14 exports. SRW and white supplies are down mostly due to lower production; yields are down from the previous year.

Projected Total 2014/15 Utilization Is Unchanged This Month

The 2014/15 outlook for projected U.S. wheat use, at 2,141 million bushels, is unchanged from November. Projected food use (960 million bushels), feed and residual use (180 million bushels), and seed use (76 million bushels) are unchanged from November. Projected 2014/15 exports, at 925 million bushels, are unchanged from November. However, there are several changes by class of wheat based on pace to date. Exports of HRW are lowered 15 million bushels. Offsetting this decrease are 5-millionbushel increases for HRS, white, and durum wheat.

Projected 2014/15 Utilization Down From 2013/14

Total use is projected down by 291 million bushels from 2013/14. Total use of HRS and durum are up, while total use of the other three classes is down year to year, especially SRW. Projected domestic use, at 1,216 million bushels, is down 40 million bushels from 2013/14 as lower expected feed and residual use more than offset higher food use. Projected 2014/15 exports are down 251 million bushels from 2013/14, especially due to lower expected SRW and HRW exports. SRW and HRW are exports expected down 128 million bushels and 141 million bushels, respectively.

Projected 2014/15 Total Ending Stocks Are Raised From November

The projected 2014/15 outlook for total U.S. wheat ending stocks is raised 10 million bushels from November to 654 million bushels. Total 2014/15 ending stocks are expected up 11 percent from 2013/14. Ending stocks of SRW and HRS are expected up year to year by 44 percent and 25 percent, respectively. White and HRW ending stocks are expected down 36 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Durum stocks are unchanged year to year.

The 2014/15 Price Range Is Changed From November

The projected season-average farm price range for 2014/15 is $5.80 to $6.20 per bushel compared with the October range of $5.65 to $6.15 per bushel. The midpoint is raised with the recent price rally. The season-average farm price for 2013/14 is estimated at $6.87 per bushel.

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2014-23

Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat. A detailed discussion summarizing the historical forces determining U.S. wheat supply and utilization, along with the analysis underlying the wheat projections for 2014-23, is available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wheat/usda-wheat-baseline,-2014-23.aspx.

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