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USDA Rice Outlook


13 February 2015

USDA Rice Outlook - February 2015USDA Rice Outlook - February 2015


USDA Rice Outlook

U.S. 2014/15 Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Price Lowered

The only 2014/15 supply side revision this month was a 1.0-million cwt increase in imports to 23.0 million cwt. The higher import forecast raised total supplies to 275.9 million cwt, 11 percent above a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in imports and supplies. Total domestic and residual use and exports are unchanged from last month’s forecasts. However, there was a 1.0-million cwt increase in long-grain exports to 71 million cwt that was offset by a 1.0-million cwt reduction in medium- and short-grain exports to 32 million cwt. The higher import forecast raised the ending stocks forecast 1.0 million cwt to 41.9 million cwt, 32 percent above a year earlier. The combined total medium- and short-grain 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) range was lowered to $17.90-$18.70 per cwt, with the mid-point down 20 cents from last month’s forecast.

The 2014/15 SAFP range for U.S. long-grain rice is projected at $11.90-$12.50 per cwt, a tightening of 20 cents on both ends of the range from last month’s forecast, with the mid-point unchanged. The all rice SAFP is projected at $13.70-$14.30 per cwt, with the mid-point down 10 cents from last month’s forecast. Global rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 474.6 million tons (milled basis), down 0.9 million tons from last month’s forecast and the first decline in global production since 2009/10. Production forecasts for 2014/15 were lowered for Thailand and Cambodia, but raised for Sri Lanka and Iraq.

Global domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at a record 483.1 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected at 98.2 million tons, 8 percent below a year earlier and the lowest global ending stocks since 2009/10. Total calendar year 2015 global rice trade is forecast at 42.2 million tons, 1.6 percent below the year-earlier record.

Thailand’s 2015 export forecast was lowered while import forecasts for Iraq and Bangladesh were raised. For calendar year 2014, export forecasts were raised for Thailand and India, but lowered for Pakistan.

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