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USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade


13 July 2015

USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 13 July 2015USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade - 13 July 2015


USDA Oilseed: World Markets and Trade

Tight Markets to Boost Soybean and Product Demand

Soybean supplies are expected to expand in 2015/16, whereas supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed are forecast to contract. Declining rapeseed and sunflowerseed harvests, combined with continued strong demand, are forecast to drive stocks down to levels not seen in years. The stocks-to-use ratio, an indicator of the tightness of the market, is expected to drop dramatically, decreasing more than 30 percent year-to-year. When measured as a percent of demand, rapeseed stocks are expected to shrink to the lowest level in over a decade, whereas sunflowerseed stocks could fall to the lowest in more than 15 years.

In contrast, soybeans are expected to have a more robust stocks-to-use ratio in the coming year as stocks continue to climb. As supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed tighten, buyers may find it more advantageous to switch purchases to soybean meal and oil as their relative prices are expected to be more competitive in the coming months. As a result, trade in soybeans and products are all forecast to rise to compensate for the more limited supplies of the alternatives.

Published by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

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