17 October 2016
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as slightly higher beef and pork production is more than offset by lower broiler production. No change is made to turkey production. Beef production is raised on higher expected slaughter although carcass weights are reduced slightly. Pork production for 2016 is raised on the pace of third quarter slaughter. Broiler production is lowered as recent production data points towards continued slow growth in bird weights. For 2017, the total red meat and poultry product forecast was raised, primarily due to higher pork production. Beef production is raised based on expectations of higher firstquarter slaughter, but the broiler production forecast was lowered on more moderate growth in production continuing from 2016. The turkey production forecast was unchanged. Egg production forecasts for 2016 or 2017 were raised on continued growth in table-egg laying flocks. Beef import and export forecasts for 2016 and 2017 were raised as slightly larger supplies of beef in a number of exporting countries support higher imports and lower U.S. beef prices make the United States more competitive in world markets. The pork export forecast for 2017 is raised on expectations of higher sales to Asia. Broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged for 2016 and 2017. Cattle, hog, broiler, and turkey prices for the last quarter of 2016 are reduced from last month as supplies of product are large. For 2017, the continued large supplies of beef, pork, and broiler meat are expected to pressure prices through the year. Egg prices are also reduced for both 2016 and 2017. The milk production forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised from last month as the cow inventory has grown more rapidly than previously expected. The higher cow inventories appear to reflect growth in herds supplying expanding dairy product facilities. Import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised on higher expected imports of butter and several other dairy products. Exports are forecast higher as increases in Oceania prices and relatively low U.S. prices are expected to make the United States more competitive in world markets. Ending stocks are reduced as lower prices encourage increased demand from both export and domestic markets. Cheese and butter price forecasts for 2016 and 2017 have been lowered due to higher expected milk supplies. However, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey will likely benefit from increased competitiveness in export markets, and stronger exports will help support prices of those products. Thus, price forecasts for NDM and whey are raised from last month. Class III and Class IV prices are lowered from last month as lower cheese prices more than offset the higher whey price in the Class III calculation and the lower butter price outweighs the NDM price increase in the calculation of the Class IV price. All milk prices are forecast lower at $15.80 to $15.90 per cwt for 2016 and $15.55 to $16.45 per cwt for 2017.
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