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Australian Weekly ABARES Report


23 August 2012

Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 23 August 2012Australian Weekly ABARES Report - 23 August 2012

The Grains Research and Development Corporation is urging grain growers to check their wheat crops for stripe rust as current temperatures and high humidity can increase the risk of disease.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

South-west Western Australia is likely to receive more than the median rainfall for spring in combination with warmer temperatures. Rainfall throughout spring would help to alleviate soil moisture deficiencies and maintain the growth of crops and pastures in this region.

Drier and warmer than normal conditions are more likely across most other parts of Australia between September and November 2012.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$641 a tonne in the week ending 21 August 2012, compared with US$639 a tonne in the previous week.

Dry and hot conditions in the Black Sea region (Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) have adversely affected winter grain crops in Ukraine, and spring crops in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.

Reports of early harvest results of the winter and spring crops from the agriculture ministries of the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, indicate average grain yields for these crops are around 28 per cent, 25 per cent and 33 per cent lower, respectively, compared with the previous season. These Black Sea exporting countries typically comprise around one tenth of world coarse grains exports and around one quarter of world wheat exports.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$335 a tonne for the week ending 22 Aug 2012, compared with US$328 a tonne in the previous week.

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$363 a tonne in the week ending 21 August 2012, compared with US$362 a tonne in the previous week.

Commodities

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US84.3 cents a pound in the week ending 22 August 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US20.1 cents a pound in the week ending 22 August 2012, around 2 per cent lower than in the previous week.

According to the Russian Sugar Union, sugar yields will increase by around 17 per cent in 2012-13 to a record 4.04 tonnes a hectare.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$641 a tonne in the week ending 21 August 2012, compared with US$639 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $540 a tonne in the week ending 20 August 2012, which was unchanged from the previous week and 1 per cent higher than the same time last year when the price was $535 a tonne.

Climate

The Grains Research and Development Corporation are urging grain growers to check their wheat crops for stripe rust following a recent case of disease found in Mace wheat in South Australia. Current temperatures and high humidity in Australia’s southern states can increase the risk of infection and spread among cereal crops.

In the coming week up to 50 millimetres of rain is forecast for some areas of Australia’s south-east cropping zone. The forecast rainfall will help sustain the growth of winter crops and the establishment of spring pastures in these areas.

South-west Western Australia is likely to receive more than the median rainfall from September to November 2012 in combination with warmer temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, 22 August 2012). If the outlook eventuates, rainfall throughout spring should help to alleviate soil moisture deficiencies and maintain the growth of crops and pastures in this region.

Drier and warmer than normal conditions are more likely across most other parts of Australia between September and November 2012. Some areas of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to experience cooler overnight temperatures throughout spring (Bureau of Meteorology National Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Outlooks, 22 August 2012).

Unusually hot and dry conditions over the last five months have adversely affected crops across 21 administrative divisions of the Russian Federation (Russian Federation Ministry of Agriculture, 21 August 2012). Drought conditions are likely to continue for the Urals and Siberian regions of Russia and southern Kazakhstan (Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia).

Rainfall this week

For the week ending 22 August 2012, moderate to heavy rainfall was recorded across southern Australia and areas on the south-east coast, with particularly heavy rainfall recorded in southern Victoria and Tasmania. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 108 millimetres at Falls Creek in south-east Victoria. For further information, click here.

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