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Canada Oilseeds and Products Annual

07 May 2010

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Spurred by relatively better price prospects, canola planted area is forecast to increase in 2010/11 to 6.7 mil. hectares and 11.9 MMT, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Canola crush is forecast to expand to 5.2 MMT in 2010/11 due to the larger crop and increased crush capacity.

Canada’s oilseed crop area is being pushed upward by the relatively higher returns to oilseeds compared to wheat. The shut down of flax exports to Europe due to finding of trace amounts of genetically modified seeds is pulling flax area down but the overall amount is not too large. However, farmers may look to planting canola as an alternative.

Post’s current 2010/11 forecast shows canola planted area expanding to 6.7 million hectares, up from 6.56 million hectares the previous season. Assuming normal yields, the 2010/11 crop is forecast at 11.9 MMT.

Canada’s canola exports during the first half of the MY 2009/10 totaled about 3.4 MMT on track for total exports of 7.0 MMT. Exports in 2010/11 are forecast at 6.6 MMT with increased crush capacity expected to keep more in country. The crush is forecast to rise from 4.5 MMT in 2009/10 to 5.2 MMT in 2010/11.

Canadian planting of soybeans is expected to increase to about 1.44 million hectares in 2010/11 compared to 2009/10’s 1.39 million hectares. With average yields the crop should hit about 3.75 MMT, up from 3.5 MMT in 2009/2010.

Soybean exports are forecast to decline slightly to 2.15 MMT in 2010/11. The 2009/10 imports are forecast at 420,000 tons compared to 387,000 tons in 2008/2009. Imports in 1010/11 are forecast down to 300,000 tons due to larger domestic availability.

Canada remains the top market for U.S. peanut exports. Import in 2009/10 and 2010/11 are forecast at 128,000 tons and 131,000 tons, respectively, and the United States is expected to retain a market share close to 80 percent.

Canada’s 2009/10 sunflower seed crop is currently estimated at 102,000 tons off 65,000 hectares. Due to relatively higher expected returns 2010/11 the forecast is for 75,000 hectares planted area and 115,000 tons production.

Total canola meal is forecast to hit 3.0 MMT in 2010/11 due to the larger crop and increased crush capacity and is forecast to push exports from 1.85 MMT in 2009/10 to 2.15 MMT in 2010/11.

Soybean crush is forecast at 1.29 MMT in 2009/10 and about 1.4 MMT in 2010/11 reflecting the larger crop. Soybean meal imports are on the decline due to lower livestock numbers and higher domestic availability. Imports are forecast at 1.1 MMT in 2009/10 and 1.01 MMT in 2010/11.

Canola oil exports increased by 5 percent in the first half of 2009/10 and are on track to hit 1.6 MMT for the year. With a larger crop and bigger crush both forecast for 2010/11, prices will likely moderate and exports are forecast to increase to 1.75 MMT. Soybean oil exports are forecast at a fairly flat level of 40,000 tons in both 2009/10 and 2010/11 due to the strong Canadian dollar and competition from other oils.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

May 2010

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