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Wheat, Barley, Oats, Corn Production Forecast Up in 2012/13

12 April 2012
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

CANADA - 2012-2013 heralds a new era of wheat and barley marketing for western Canadian grain producers.

For the first time in nearly 70 years, the western Canadian wheat and barley markets will be operating in an open-market environment due to the Canadian Wheat Board losing its single-desk authority and beginning its transition to a commercial entity on 1 August, 2012.

Unlike in 2011-2012, spring seeding conditions look very favorable. Economics and crop rotations will be the deciding factors for Canadian farmers this spring. There remains a great deal of uncertainty around what will happen in the new marketing environment as grain companies have been slow to offer contracts and producers continue to evaluate their options.

Total wheat production in 2012-2013 is forecast at 26.1 million metric tons (MMT), three per cent above the previous year's level, and five per cent above the five-year average. The increase in area seeded is reflective of a return to more normal levels of area seeded to wheat after a high rate of acreage abandonment in 2011-2012 caused by difficult weather conditions.

Barley and oats production is expected to rise in 2012-2013 due to a return to more normal levels of summer fallow. Barley production is forecast at 9.0 MMT, and oats production is forecast at 3.6 MMT, up 16 per cent and an 18 per cent over the previous year's levels, respectively.

Strong corn prices and good weather conditions are forecast to result in a five per cent increase in corn production in Ontario and Quebec in 2012-2013, compared to the previous year. Corn production is forecast at 11.2 MMT.

Driven by increased supplies due to an increase in area seeded to wheat, exports in 2012-2013 are forecast to rise to over 18.0 MMT, export levels are four per cent above 2011-2012 levels and marginally above the 5-year average for exports.

While exports of barley and oats are forecast to rise in response to increased supply, they remain well below the 5-year average due to limited supplies. They are forecast at 1.15 MMT and 1.74 MMT, respectively.

Corn imports in 2012-2013 are forecast to remain unchanged from year 2011-2012 levels due to forecast increases in production which will off-set the lower carry-in stocks. Corn imports for 2012-2013 are forecast at 1.2 MMT, close to normal imports levels.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

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