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CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Thursday

27 April 2012

US - July Corn finished up 6 1/2 at 607 1/2, 3/4 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. December Corn closed down 3 at 535. This was 5 up from the low and 5 off the high.

May corn closed sharply higher while July was moderately higher into the close but on the highs of the day and December corn recovered from moderately lower on the day late ion the session but still closed lower. July corn saw mostly choppy to lower trade for much of the early trade until buying emerged late in the day.

A firm basis market at the gulf and talk that the offers were pulled for delivery in the next few months due to a lack of producer selling helped to support. Weekly export sales came in at 645,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 180,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 826,200. As of April 19th, cumulative corn sales stand at 83.3 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.3 per cent.

Sales of 374,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The data suggests that the USDA may be in a position to raise their export forecast in the May 10th update. Ideas of little or no deliveries for first notice day for May corn has helped to provide underlying support to the old crop corn even with the sell-off in soybeans and choppy trade in outside markets.

December corn was lower into the mid-session with talk of active planting in Iowa and ideas that the crop will get off to a fast start this year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced their corn production estimate by 1 million tonnes from their previous estimate to 19.8 million tonnes as compared with the April USDA forecast of 21.5 million tonnes. July Rice finished down 0.32 at 15.68, 0.01 off the high and equal to the low.

Soybean Futures Closed Higher

July Soybeans finished up 4 1/4 at 1480 1/4, 2 3/4 off the high and 16 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 11 3/4 at 1358 3/4. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 11 1/4 off the high.

July Soymeal closed up 4.6 at 421.8. This was 7.2 up from the low and 0.2 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.28 at 55.75, 0.39 off the high and 0.34 up from the low. May and July soybeans recovered to close higher on the day while November soybeans closed sharply lower and near the lows.

Solid export sales news helped to support the market with strong old crop sales helped to support. The market saw some strength early but selling quickly emerged to drive the market moderately lower on the day into the mid-session. November led the market lower as traders see recent action in soybeans relative to other grains and cotton as a factor which may have attracted extra planted area.

Talk of unwinding of soy/corn spreads added to the negative tone into the mid-session. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 926,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 483,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1.409 million tonnes which was even higher than expectations.

As of April 19th, cumulative soybean sales stand at 95.2 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.9 per cent. Sales of 88,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Meal sales came in at 221,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 11,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 232,800. Cumulative sales stand at 77.9 per cent of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 74.5 per cent.

Sales of 76,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Oil sales came in at 700 metric tonnes which was well below expectations. Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 66.3 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 67.1 per cent. Sales of 8,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced their soybean production estimate by 1 million tonnes from their previous estimate to 43 million tonnes as compared with the April USDA forecast of 45 million tonnes. There have been estimates from the trade in recent days at 40-42 million.

Wheat Futures Closed Higher

July Wheat finished up 9 at 635 1/2, 1 1/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 6 at 671 3/4. This was 8 1/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. July wheat was trading just slightly higher late in the day but a late buying spurt sparked a rally to new highs for the day late and a 9 cent higher close.

Uncertain weather factors helped to support the early bounce and short-covering emerged to see moderately higher trade into the mid-session. High temperatures in parts of Ukraine and in the southern plains of the US plus cold weather in the eastern Corn Belt helped to support.

Temperatures in northern Texas wheat areas were well above 100 degrees to as high as 110 degrees and this had traders concerned for yield losses. Weekly export sales came in at 386,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 357,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 744,000. As of April 19th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 99.3 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 95.7 per cent.

Sales of 32,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The International Grain Council lowered their world production forecast by 5 million tonnes to 676 million tonnes as compared with 695 million last year. Iraq bought 300,000 tonnes of wheat which traders thought was from Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan. July Oats closed down 1 1/4 at 340 1/2. This was 1 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.


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